Today (1 March 2024) is the first day of meteorological spring. We cannot yet guarantee exactly what this spring will bring, but wildlife will be betting on another warm one, writes Grahame Madge – a Met Office climate spokesman and wildlife enthusiast – ahead of the United Nations’ World Wildlife Day on Sunday.
The red admiral butterfly can now be seen on virtually any warmish day in the UK. Previously it wasn’t an over-wintering species and it only used to occur here in the warmer months as a visitor from further south. Picture: Grahame Madge
For the UK, the five warmest springs since 1884 have all occurred since 2007. Wildlife is responding to this shift towards warmer springs by accelerating their own activities.
An index of spring – compiled from observations of the appearance of key spring wildlife species – is occurring many days earlier now when compared with the first half of last century.
The wildlife spring index shows the timing of biological spring events (the number of days after 31 December) in the UK. From 1891 to 1947 the Royal Meteorological Society provided the data, while from 1998 to 2022 it was provided by the UK Phenology Network (Nature’s Calendar, currently funded by the People’s Postcode Lottery, Postcode Green Trust). The Spring Index is calculated from the annual mean observation date of the following four biological events: first flowering of hawthorn; first flowering of horse chestnut; first recorded flight of an orange-tip butterfly; and first sighting of a swallow.
Already this year, at least one swallow has been reported in southern England; returning from Africa well ahead of the rest of its cohort. I have seen red admiral butterflies, bumble-bees and many chiffchaffs – a small usually summer-visiting songbird – in my corner of Exeter and sections of my walk to work have been lined with primroses. Anecdotally, these sightings are much earlier than I would expect.
However, my ad-hoc sightings in the margins of my dog-eared notebook are backed up by an army of wildlife fans diligently recording species across the UK through the Woodland Trust’s Nature’s Calendar scheme.
The recording of the timing of biological events is known as phenology. Two long-running nature surveys – monitoring four easily recorded species – have revealed that the average of time of appearance of these four species since 1998 is 8.7 days earlier than the average dates in the first part of the 20th Century. This is alarming, but not exceptional as other trends have been recorded too.
The dashed trend line in this graph shows that the UK spring has become more than 1.0°C warmer in the last 100 years.
A new course for the red admiral
The striking red admiral butterfly has always been a familiar visitor to parks and gardens the length and breadth of the UK. It used to be an exclusively migratory butterfly arriving on our shores after crossing the English Channel. But warmer winters are now altering this insect’s behaviour. Our winters are now becoming warm enough for it to overwinter as an adult to emerge on warm days in winter or early spring.
The warming of our climate is leading to a response from nature. The red admiral is an extremely abundant and seemingly adaptable insect, so it is unlikely to suffer any population consequences from this behaviour; at least at a species level. However, you have to wonder about the fate of those individuals encouraged to take their first flight of the year in winter, only to be hit by frost a few days later. What happens to them? My colleague Dr Mark McCarthy a Met Office climate statistics expert noted: “While frosts and cold spells in winter are falling, the date of first/last frost haven’t actually shifted all that much. So, although there are fewer frosts overall the risk of a ‘false spring’ in winter can increase the exposure to spring frosts later in the season. So, for parts of the environment and the agricultural and horticultural sectors there can be increased frost risks even with a declining trend.”
What happens when nature can’t rely on a warm spring?
Many species are making the most of warmer winters and springs to gain an ecological advantage and make the most of the changing seasons. In fact, they are banking on the UK’s climate statistics showing that winter and spring are becoming warmer, on average. But these trends are derived from seasonal averages of temperatures observed over a standard three-decade period. Occasionally, the actual temperature can be a long way from the long-term average and wildlife can be caught out by a colder-than-average spring. This happened in 2013.
The spring of 2013 was the coldest in the UK in 50 years. Some species were severely impacted. Although not a common event, springs as cold as 2013 happened more frequently in the late 19th and early to mid 20th Century.
The stone-curlew is one of England’s rarest birds, with a small and vulnerable population in southern and eastern England. Picture: Adobe Stock
In 2013 I worked for the RSPB, and we were being besieged by members of the public reporting odd birds turning up in gardens desperate for food and respite from the cold. The greatest concerns for a conservation organisation were the fates of those species whose populations had become severely depleted by other factors. The number one species of worry was for the stone-curlew, a species of wading bird thinly spread across parts of the agricultural landscapes of southern and eastern England. The birds spend the winter around the Mediterranean and arrive back on their nesting sites in early spring. Farmers were reporting numbers of these birds which had succumbed to the cold because of a lack of food. At the time the RSPB’s conservation director Martin Harper said: “I can’t remember a spring like this – nature has really been tested by a prolonged period of very cold weather.”
During parts of March 2013, the average temperature in the UK dipped to their lowest levels.
Climate change is affecting many species of wildlife. Some will adapt and others won’t. But even those with potential to adapt may be confounded by other factors, and populations which are already depleted will be less resilient to climate change impacts.
Warmer weather, flooding, and droughts are already affecting rugby, but how will the increasing effects of climate change impact rugby in the future?
A new report by World Rugby (the rugby union governing body), has identified six major climate risks which could impact the sport, either directly or indirectly, in the future if action is not taken to increase the sport’s resilience against the risks of climate change.
The Climate Change and Rugby report investigated climate hazards across ten countries (Argentina, Australia, England, Fiji, France, India, Japan, New Zealand, South Africa, and the USA), and found there would be significant impacts for each region if global average temperature were to reach levels of +2°C above a pre-industrial level.
The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) states that since the Industrial Revolution, the average temperature of the planet has risen by around 1.1°C.
Using a methodology which includes projections alongside observations, research by the Met Office indicates the current global warming level could be as high as 1.25°C. This is a rapid change in terms of our global climate system and is already leading to changes in the extreme weather we experience on the Earth’s surface.
Extreme heat days
As global temperatures rise, so do the instances of extreme heat days (days in which the temperature exceeds 35°C). This not only puts rugby players at risk, but fans of the sport too. This has been seen in other sports in the past where matches have needed to be called off because of scorching temperatures. For example, in 2014, play had to be suspended on all uncovered courts for more than 4 hours at the Australian open due to temperatures rising to over 40°C, causing a risk of heat exhaustion or heatstroke for the athletes.
World Rugby’s report found that six out of the ten countries they investigated would face ten or more additional days each year where playing rugby would be ill advised or even impossible due to climbing temperatures.
Increased frequency and intensity of droughts
Droughts affect the availability of water, and reduced access to this resource could result in drier, harder and less grassy pitches. The report indicates that dry conditions will reduce the quality of playing surfaces, affecting ball bounce and player movement. This could also increase the risk of players getting injured when athletes tumble onto hard ground. Half of all countries in the study would likely see an increase in the frequency and intensity of droughts, leading to less days where pitches are suitable for use.
Marine submersion and flooding risks
The report shows that rising sea levels pose a threat to stadiums near the coast, while flash floods caused by the increased frequency and intensity of rain pose a threat to both coastal pitches and those further inland. Floods could make stadiums inaccessible for extended periods of time, as even after the water subsides, turf and building structures can be left with substantial damage. Repairing stadiums after flooding can be costly and take a long time. World Rugby says that 11% of the 111 stadiums in the report can expect to see an increased annual submersion risk, while eight out of ten countries studied will face an increase in the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation and flash floods.
Increased humidity
Increased humidity can cause additional heat-related suffering for athletes, officials, and spectators. Higher levels of humidity can make heat feel more intense and reduce the body’s ability to perform certain functions, such as sweating. Additionally, high levels of humidity can cause issues with the health and growth of certain grass varieties that may be used on pitches. The report found that most climate regions will experience periods of higher humidity, impacting the ability to play rugby.
Adaptation
To reduce the impacts of climate change on rugby, some adaptations will need to be made in the future. World Rugby has suggested in their report the development and implementation of individual sustainability plans, to help reduce rugby’s environmental impact. As well as this, climate projections will need to be considered when implementing new policies to prepare the game for a changing climate.
In a recent blog, we shared details of a piece of work by the Met Office which explores expected future climatic conditions for a range of range of cultural, sporting and social events across the UK. The study compares observations and climate projections for temperature and rainfall may change in the future for the start of the Six Nations (February) at the Twickenham (London), Murrayfield (Edinburgh) and Principality (Cardiff) stadiums.
Climate change already has, and will likely continue to affect rugby, but with research and the implementation of new strategies and adaptation, risks can be minimised to allow fans and athletes to continue to enjoy the sport.
The Met Office has just published its latest briefing on Arctic and Antarctic sea ice.
The update doesn’t reveal any record-breaking figures, but it does reveal that sea ice loss remains a serious issue.
Alex West who co-ordinates the sea ice briefings said: “After last year’s record-breaking minimum extent of sea ice in the Antarctic, the latest update shows greater sea ice extent than last year, but it is still the second lowest on record for the time of year.
Following a warm June, Arctic sea ice extent is below average for the time of year but some way above record low levels, with conditions fairly typical of recent years.
“Extent is particularly low in the Laptev Sea and in the Atlantic sector, but nearer average in other parts of the Arctic.
“This year’s September Arctic sea ice extent is likely to be well below average, but there are not yet heightened indications of a new record low.”
The Advancing Arctic Capabilities programme – a new project led by the Met Office -brings international partners to develop an improved understanding of what is happening to the region’s ice, ocean and atmosphere to support global climate resilience.
The project will deliver cutting-edge insights into Arctic weather patterns and ocean currents.
Hurricane Beryl, which has been tearing through the Caribbean, has been hitting the headlines for several reasons.
Firstly, there is the undeniable fact that during her existence as a Category 4 and 5 hurricane Beryl caused much damage and loss of life across several nations and territories, including Grenada, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Jamaica and the British Overseas Territory of the Cayman Islands.
Satellite image of Hurricane Beryl crossing Jamaica in early July 2024
Secondly, Beryl has become infamous for being the earliest Category 5 hurricane in the historical record in the Atlantic Basin. Category 5 is the highest ranking for hurricanes requiring sustained wind speeds of at least 157 mph. Hurricane Beryl’s wind actually peaked at 165 mph on 2 July. The earliest date in the year any previous Atlantic hurricane had achieved winds of this strength was a full month later on 5 August.
Active hurricane season
Julian Heming is a Met Office tropical cyclone expert who has been studying these systems for many years. He said: “In the second half of May several prediction centres, including the Met Office, forecast an active Atlantic hurricane season with between 150% and 200% of usual activity.
“These Atlantic seasonal forecasts have been influenced by the development of cooler waters in the equatorial eastern Pacific in recent months – in line with the anticipated La Niña or cooler phase of the naturally-variable El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.
“Developing La Niña conditions have a known association with a more active Atlantic hurricane season. So, we know that natural variation in the climate system has a huge observable effect on hurricane activity.
“But this trend towards La Niña favouring hurricane development would not solely explain Hurricane Beryl and the prediction of an active hurricane season.
“Sea temperatures across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea have been well above average since the Spring of 2023 which provides fuel for intense hurricanes like Beryl. There is much meteorologists do not yet understand about how these high sea-surface temperatures have developed and why they have persisted for so long. This is an active area of research.”
“Furthermore, higher sea-surface temperatures in line with a warming climate are expected to favour the development of a greater proportion of intense tropical cyclones in the long term.”
International effort
Will Lang is the Met Office’s head of Situational Awareness. He said: “Met Office forecasts are a crucial part of the international effort to predict Atlantic hurricanes, and our experts work at the heart of UK Government’s international response to damaging hurricanes such as Beryl.”
You can watch an interview about Hurricane Beryl here.
