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Leading China VC Kai-Fu Lee warns an investor reckoning is coming for unprofitable AI companies

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The halcyon days where venture capitalists were content forking over billions to the latest AI startup, as researchers burned through cash with little to show for it, may be all but over. A “reckoning” is coming soon for AI companies that fail to turn a profit as the new technology matures, Kai-Fu Lee, chairman and chief executive of Sinovation Ventures, said at the Fortune Innovation forum in Hong Kong on Wednesday.

Lee said too many large language model (LLM) startups focus on striving for breakthrough advances and too little on commercializing their work. “A lot of the LLM companies out there are run by researchers who care only about making a great model,” he said in a conversation with Fortune editor-in-chief Alyson Shontell. “That science fair phase needs to end.”

If there’s one aspect the three leading U.S. megacap tech stocks all have in common, it’s that they successfully monetized an emerging technology—Microsoft with the personal computer, Apple and Google with the smartphone.

A former Google China president and himself a researcher in the field, Lee founded his own AI startup in March 2023. The firm, named 01.AI, was valued at more than $1 billion in less than eight months.

Lee said his own former employer Google serves as a cautionary tale. Even with the densest network of AI talent found in the world to this day, he argued that Google lost its lead to OpenAI because it squandered time and resources indulging all of its employees’ competing plans.

“If you have too many researchers and a culture where everybody can try their ideas, you’ll quickly run out of money as a startup,” he said. 

Huawei’s focus vs Google’s ‘let one hundred flowers bloom’

Lee argued that in order for his company to one day count among the world leaders in the field, it needs to be brutally efficient with every dollar it spends.

On Wednesday, the AI expert pointed to Huawei as an example of how such focus might work in practice. China’s leading telecom equipment maker seized on an obscure advance by Turkish IT researcher Erdal Arıkan, investing its efforts almost exclusively in commercializing his polar code breakthrough. This allowed them to eventually surpass larger western competitors like Ericsson and go on to control the bulk of the 5G mobile networking market.

“That made all the difference,” Lee said. “We’re taking that same approach to be very, very diligent to save GPU [costs].”

Thanks to its focus on efficient execution, he believes 01.AI—which publishes all its research on open sites like Hugging Face—has narrowed the gap to American companies like OpenAI from eight years to less than twelve months in just a year’s time.

AI rivals that instead embrace Google’s strategy of “let one hundred flowers bloom”, as Lee phrased it, would by comparison struggle to reach profitability. 

“There is a point of reckoning when investors are going to say: What do you have to show for yourself?” said Lee. “What’s your P&L? What’s your revenue? What’s your growth? When do you break even?” 

If an AI startup doesn’t have a convincing answer, then its “science fair” days are over.



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These incarcerated women are leaving prison with a certified license to make people feel beautiful. The program ‘gave me a chance to feel human again’

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Stephanie F., who asked Fortune to withhold her last name for privacy concerns, was 39 when she became incarcerated in 2018 at Coffee Creek Correctional Facility, a medium-security women’s prison in Oregon that holds anyone from drug charges to those serving life sentences without parole. At the time, she said, “I never really took care of myself,” and needed to learn to “control my temper and keep my mouth shut.” 

Five years into her sentence, she was desperate for a fresh start. Her release date in 2032 was a decade away, and prison could be demoralizing. That’s when she met another woman in custody who was enrolled in a cosmetology program at Coffee Creek, which awards graduates a state license in hair, esthetics and nails to practice as estheticians and cosmetologists upon release. It changed everything for her. 

“I saw this transformation that this person made and who they became,” she told Fortune in a phone interview, “and I just thought, I want that for my life. I want to be a better person.” 

Now age 45, Stephanie is 11 months deep in the two-year program, and is on her way to join a cohort of 36 graduates, nine of whom have been released. The corrections facility has been in partnership with skin therapy company Dermalogica on the program since 2019, with an aim to help women run their own businesses or secure a liveable income upon release. When she’s out, she’ll join the flock of about 650,000 people released from state and federal prisons every year—some of whom find freedom with “little more than a few dollars and a bus ticket,” according to a statement President Joe Biden released while proclaiming April as “Second Chance Month.” 

Historically, Americans with criminal records face an unwelcoming labor market. According to a report from the Bureau of Justice Statistics that tracked 50,000 people after leaving prisons in 2010, over a third found no employment four years after their release, and at any given time, no more than 40% were employed. But the tides are turning: in a survey of 1,000 job seekers conducted by Indeed, 92% said they would be comfortable with a co-worker who has a nonviolent criminal record. Companies, like Dermalogica, are committing more to equity efforts, too. In 2022, railroad company Union Pacific began hiring formerly incarcerated people, citing evidence that employment helps them avoid further arrests and makes their children less likely to be imprisoned. 

For formerly incarcerated people, re-entry into society is one of the “most significant challenges facing the criminal justice system,” according to a National Institute of Justice report. And with 78,000 women being released from prison each year, while the number of women entering prisons and jails is growing, it’s a problem that deserves attention. 

In addition to employment, the report states, challenges include securing housing and managing mental illness, family reunification, childcare and parenting. In fact, the majority of incarcerated women are parents to children under the age of 18. 

For Dermalogica’s partnership with Coffee Creek, the intention is to help women come out of prison with a few of those bases covered, namely the ability to earn a livable wage and provide support to their families. The partnership involves a 1,835-hour certification program in hair, skin and nails to cohorts of 20 women at a time.

The structure of the program involves two instructors from Dermalogica staff, which the prison hires on contract to teach monthly classes via Zoom while the women in custody practice techniques on each other and mannequins. They also study theory through textbooks and workbooks that the company provides. Dermalogica doesn’t release how much funding goes into the program, but provides upwards of 50 products like facial cleansers, exfoliators, moisturizers, brushes and LED machines for advanced skin care treatment twice a year, along with study materials for the license certification exams at the end of the program. 

In class, the women study how to treat different skin conditions, while also performing hands-on treatments. When a student completes 1,835 hours, another can begin on a rolling basis. The aim is to give women in custody a skillset they can rely on once they’re released—and that they can apply in a growing industry.

The professional skin care industry is growing at an accelerated rate, Dermalogica CEO Aurelian Lis told Fortune, adding that the program “works all around to train students for roles that will be more in-demand than ever.” 

Sure enough, the industry is growing: the professional skin care market size was valued at about $12.4 billion in 2022, and it’s forecast to grow to $15.3 billion by 2029, according to a Market Reports World report on LinkedIn. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also expects skin care specialists to grow 9% from 2022 to 2032, a rate that’s much faster than the average for other occupations. But the classes, which also cover entrepreneurship and soft skills, have been offering much more than just a good job outlook.

Lis described how the program is unique to a correctional facility because “it’s the only place that adults in custody are able to touch each other.” With the no-touching rule, “you lose that humanity,” she added, and it’s something many of the women struggle with. Stephanie agreed, noting she believes it’s normal human behavior to want to hug your friends and that physical touch can improve mental health.

Sarah E., a graduate of the program who spent five years in the facility until her release in February 2020, told Fortune that without the support and friendships she formed in class, she “might not be alive today,” adding that the program “gave me a chance to feel human again.”

“Sometimes our families just can’t support us in that place,” she said. “They’re living life outside, and we’re stuck in this box. We’re worried about what’s going on with our families and their lives, and the support and care from people in the same situation is huge.”

It’s not surprising the no-touch rule needs to bend for the program, where the incarcerated women learn skills like facials, chemical peels, hair coloring and styling and manicures, while practicing the services on other adults in custody and even prison staff. Practicing services on staff, Stephanie said, improved interactions that are often dehumanizing for both sides: she has a tendency to put “cop labels” on the guards, while she said they can often be “condescending.”

“It’s hard for them to see us as regular people,” she said.

But when she performs services that require communication and mutual agreements with staff members, “it lets them see that I’ve made choices in my life, but it doesn’t mean I’m not going to be their neighbor someday.” 

Tammy Kennedy, a trainer for the cosmetology program at the facility, told Fortune that staff can request haircuts, facials and skin treatments at beauty school prices, which are often a fraction of what salons charge. Other adults in custody can get treatments for free or for a small fee. Treating prison staff as clients has been a positive experience for the women, she said, because they “have to rise to a different level and learn to have appropriate conversations with people that aren’t about the stuff happening in the facility.” It puts a focus on conversational soft skills that are vital for salon workers.

Beyond that, the services are a way for women to earn a livable wage immediately upon their release.

That’s one reason the work resonated for Sarah, who felt the other courses offered at the facility—like call center training with the Department of Motor Vehicles and sewing courses—wouldn’t help her provide enough for her three kids, aged 22, 16 and 12. 

Before prison, she was working in the food industry, where she earned about $10 an hour. Now, she makes more than twice that, plus tips, but the beginning of her career was rough because of the pandemic. Sarah was released in February 2020, just as the pandemic had begun derailing industries that depend on close contact, like hers. 

In September of that year, she secured a job in the esthetics field, and when the salon shuttered its doors two years later in November 2022, she started a new job at a plastic surgery office in Eugene, Oregon, where she now works as an esthetician and medical assistant on services like Botox, fillers, facials, and one of her favorite treatments, chemical peels.

Along with a license to practice beauty, Sarah walked away from prison with friendships she believes will be “life lasting.” One of the women she graduated with, she said, hangs out with her at her house and spends time with her kids—and also helps her save upwards of $300 by doing her hair for free. 

The community the women gained from classes has also inspired them to give back to other women who might be having a hard time. For Stephanie, who has a 15-year-old daughter waiting for her outside prison, being incarcerated is difficult when she thinks of the events she’s missing in her daughter’s life, like first days of school and prom. When “you’re an incarcerated mom,” she said, “everything is limited. But you know that appearance can matter to them so much.” She hopes to give back to the program by offering to help other kids with incarcerated parents get ready for prom. 

For her part, Sarah believes the program’s skills can help sustain women into “life outside of those walls,” especially considering that many women are released with low credit scores, poor rental histories or work experiences. “It’s such a beautiful program,” she said, “I don’t know if I would have survived prison without it.”



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United Airlines (UAL) 1Q 2024 earnings

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A United Airlines Boeing 737 Max 9 aircraft lands at San Francisco International Airport.

Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

United Airlines on Tuesday cut its aircraft-delivery expectations for the year as it grapples with delays from Boeing, the latest airline to face growth challenges because of the plane-maker’s safety crisis.

United expects to receive just 61 new narrow-body planes this year, down from 101 it said it had expected at the beginning of the year and contracts for as many as 183 planes in 2024.

“We’ve adjusted our fleet plan to better reflect the reality of what the manufacturers are able to deliver,” CEO Scott Kirby said in an earnings release. “And, we’ll use those planes to capitalize on an opportunity that only United has: profitably grow our mid-continent hubs and expand our highly profitable international network from our best in the industry coastal hubs.”

United said it plans to lease 35 Airbus A321neos in 2026 and 2027, turning to Boeing’s rival for new planes as the U.S. manufacturer faces caps on its production and increased federal scrutiny. In January, United said it was taking Boeing’s not-yet-certified Max 10 out of its fleet plan. The airline said it has converted some Max 10 planes for Max 9s.

It lowered its annual capital expenditure estimate to $6.5 billion from about $9 billion.

United is also facing a Federal Aviation Administration safety review, which has prevented some of its planned growth. A spokeswoman told CNBC earlier this month that the carrier will have to postpone its planned service from Newark, New Jersey, to Faro, Portugal, and service between Tokyo and Cebu, Philippines.

United earlier this month postponed its investor day, which was scheduled for May, “because our entire team is focused on cooperating with the FAA to review our safety protocols and it would simply send the wrong message to our team to have an exciting investor day focused primarily on financial results.”

The airline said it would have reported a profit for the quarter if not for a $200 million hit from the temporary grounding of the Boeing 737 Max 9 in January.

The FAA temporarily grounded those jets after a door plug blew out minutes into an Alaska Airlines flight, sparking a new safety crisis for Boeing and slowing deliveries of its planes to customers including United, Southwest and others.

The airline posted a net loss of $124 million, or a loss of 38 cents a share, in the first quarter compared with a $194 million loss, or 59 cents, a year earlier. Revenue rose nearly 10% in the first quarter compared with the year-earlier period to $12.54 billion, with capacity up more than 9% on the year.

Here’s what United reported in the first quarter compared with what Wall Street expected, based on average estimates compiled by LSEG:

  • Loss per share: 15 cents adjusted vs. a loss of 57 cents expected
  • Revenue: $12.54 billion vs. $12.45 billion expected

The airline expects to post earnings of between $3.75 and $4.25 in the second quarter, ahead of analysts’ estimates of about $3.76 a share. Airlines make the bulk of their profits in the second and third quarters, during peak travel season.

The carrier also reiterated its full-year earnings forecast of between $9 and $11 a share.

United’s shares were up more than 4% in after-hours trading on Tuesday.

United executives will hold a call with analysts at 10:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday.

Don’t miss these exclusives from CNBC PRO



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Ex-Post Office boss regrets ‘missed opportunity’ to halt Horizon scandal

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“On reflection, and I have reflected on this very hard, when I finished being the Horizon programme director [in early 2000] it would have been very beneficial if I had notified both the lawyers and the [investigations team] that Horizon was a new system coming in, and that they should be very cautious about evidence coming out of that system,” he said.



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