The Climate and Plant Biosecurity Climate Service, funded by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), is a collaboration between the Met Office’s Vegetation-Climate Interactions team, Defra’s Plant Health Risk and Horizon Scanning team, the University of Exeter, Fera Science, the University of Warwick, Forest Research and The Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew.
Since 2006 the non-native and invasive Oak Processionary Moth has been spreading across England and Wales. Picture: Adobe Stock
The aim of the service is to provide analyses, tools and guidance to help manage the climate-related risks to UK plants, particularly trees and forests, from plant pests and pathogens.
Pest and pathogen outbreaks
Pests and pathogens present serious risks to our trees and forest habitats as well as the ecosystem services they provide. The number of new pest and pathogen outbreaks affecting trees has increased rapidly in recent years (see table, Source: Forestry Commission).
Year (since 1971) New tree pest or pathogen outbreak
1971 Dutch elm disease
1983 Great spruce bark beetle
1984 Phytophthora alni
1995 Gypsy moth
1997 Dothistroma needle blight
2002 Phytophthora ramorum
2002 Horse chestnut leaf miner
2003 Phytophthora kernoviae
2005 Bleeding canker of horse chestnut
2006 Oak processionary moth
2006 Phytophthora pseudosyringae
2007 Pine tree lappet moth
2010 Acute oak decline
2010 Phytophthora lateralis
2012 Ash dieback
2012 Asian longhorn beetle
2012 Sweet chestnut blight
2012 Phytophthora austrocedri
2014 Phytophthora sikiyouensis
2014 Sirococcus tsugae
2015 Oriental chestnut gall wasp
2017 Elm zigzag sawfly
2018 Eight toothed spruce bark beetle
2021 Phytophthora pluvialis
Climate (variability and change) influences pests and pathogens in many ways, including i) the timing of life cycle events (such as emergence from egg to caterpillar), ii) the spatial distribution and spread, and iii) the introduction and establishment of non-native species.
Tools to help manage UK plant biosecurity
The UK Climate-Pest Risk Web Tool is one of the tools that has been developed by Met Office scientists Neil Kaye and Deborah Hemming (Vegetation-Climate Interactions team) in collaboration with biosecurity and forestry experts at Defra, Forest Research, Fera Science and the University of Warwick. It integrates ecological knowledge and models of known temperature thresholds for different pests/pathogens, with up-to-date climate observation datasets from the Met Office National Climate Information Centre.
Deborah Hemming, Scientific Manager of the Vegetation-Climate Interactions team at the Met Office, who leads this climate service, notes: “When tree pests and diseases become established, they can wreak havoc on our woodlands. Commercial forestry can be affected hugely, but they also affect the landscapes of our islands which many people love and cherish. In the 1970s, Dutch Elm Disease killed most of the UK’s stately elm trees with those plants remaining being small stands in isolated sections of hedgerow. Similarly, Ash Dieback since 2012 has decimated ash trees with similar devastating effect.
“When trees die, especially native broadleaf trees, there are impacts on landscape and wildlife. And in times of climate change there is also a reduction in the availability of carbon stocks because trees provide a hugely valuable ecosystem service by drawing down atmospheric carbon and locking it away. By joining forces with experts in plant biosecurity at Defra, ecological modelling at University of Exeter, forestry at Forest Research and ecological systems at Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, we are able to provide scientifically robust and useful research, tools and services to help protect UK trees and forests now and into the future.”
The tool enables users to easily estimate the timings and locations of pest outbreaks across the UK, and inform actions to assess, survey, monitor and eradicate plant pests, helping to enhance UK plant biosecurity.
Simon Toomer, Curator of Living Collections at Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, says: “As we develop strategies and plans to adapt and prepare our tree and shrub collections for changing climatic conditions, one of the most complex and least understood threats is that from pests and diseases. This research is going to help us understand how changes in general climate variables translate into changes in the specific conditions experienced by pest species, and how we may adapt our management accordingly.”
Healthy ash trees form an important part of the UK’s tree canopy. Isolated trees are also a feature of hedgerows. Picture: Adobe Stock
Improving monitoring and modelling of microclimates
Pests and pathogens respond to microclimates within the habitats where they live. To improve the estimates of pest/pathogen risks, ecological modellers at the University of Exeter have developed mechanistic microclimate models to estimate temperature and humidity within relevant habitat locations e.g., under tree canopies, inside tree trunks or buried at various depths within the soil. In these habitats, microclimates can vary by 40-50°C and be significantly different to conditions observed at weather stations.
Ilya Maclean, Professor of Global Change Biology at the University of Exeter, says: “It is important to understand the climate as pests and pathogens experience it. This can be very different from the conditions measured by a weather station. My team is developing models that allow us to do this and the data we are collecting as part of this project will be invaluable in helping us improve our models”.
Daegan Inward, Senior Scientist at Forest Research, explains further: “We know that beetle outbreaks are often associated with sun-warmed stems, and understanding the under-bark microclimate is important to help predict the risk of insect establishment and population growth in Britain.”
Climate change and globalisation
To validate the microclimate models, in February 2024 the Met Office, the University of Exeter, Forest Research and Kew Gardens began a campaign of microclimate monitoring at five sites in different forest habitats across southern England (Cornwall, Dartmoor, Alice Holt, Kew Gardens and Wakehurst). The team installed a series of sensors to monitor temperature within the woodlands and inside tree trunks. The data collected will help improve the understanding and modelling of variations in the pest/pathogen microclimates, and therefore the estimates of biosecurity risks.
Defra Chief Plant Health Officer Nicola Spence said: “Climate change and globalisation are increasing the number and diversity of pests and pathogens we are exposed to, resulting in an ever-growing number of threats. This collaborative effort to develop climate modelling tools and improve our understanding of pest or pathogen climate interactions, will allow us to better plan for and improve our ongoing surveillance and monitoring. This work is crucial to adapt to a changing climate and better understand how the health and resilience of our trees could be at risk.”
Warmer weather, flooding, and droughts are already affecting rugby, but how will the increasing effects of climate change impact rugby in the future?
A new report by World Rugby (the rugby union governing body), has identified six major climate risks which could impact the sport, either directly or indirectly, in the future if action is not taken to increase the sport’s resilience against the risks of climate change.
The Climate Change and Rugby report investigated climate hazards across ten countries (Argentina, Australia, England, Fiji, France, India, Japan, New Zealand, South Africa, and the USA), and found there would be significant impacts for each region if global average temperature were to reach levels of +2°C above a pre-industrial level.
The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) states that since the Industrial Revolution, the average temperature of the planet has risen by around 1.1°C.
Using a methodology which includes projections alongside observations, research by the Met Office indicates the current global warming level could be as high as 1.25°C. This is a rapid change in terms of our global climate system and is already leading to changes in the extreme weather we experience on the Earth’s surface.
Extreme heat days
As global temperatures rise, so do the instances of extreme heat days (days in which the temperature exceeds 35°C). This not only puts rugby players at risk, but fans of the sport too. This has been seen in other sports in the past where matches have needed to be called off because of scorching temperatures. For example, in 2014, play had to be suspended on all uncovered courts for more than 4 hours at the Australian open due to temperatures rising to over 40°C, causing a risk of heat exhaustion or heatstroke for the athletes.
World Rugby’s report found that six out of the ten countries they investigated would face ten or more additional days each year where playing rugby would be ill advised or even impossible due to climbing temperatures.
Increased frequency and intensity of droughts
Droughts affect the availability of water, and reduced access to this resource could result in drier, harder and less grassy pitches. The report indicates that dry conditions will reduce the quality of playing surfaces, affecting ball bounce and player movement. This could also increase the risk of players getting injured when athletes tumble onto hard ground. Half of all countries in the study would likely see an increase in the frequency and intensity of droughts, leading to less days where pitches are suitable for use.
Marine submersion and flooding risks
The report shows that rising sea levels pose a threat to stadiums near the coast, while flash floods caused by the increased frequency and intensity of rain pose a threat to both coastal pitches and those further inland. Floods could make stadiums inaccessible for extended periods of time, as even after the water subsides, turf and building structures can be left with substantial damage. Repairing stadiums after flooding can be costly and take a long time. World Rugby says that 11% of the 111 stadiums in the report can expect to see an increased annual submersion risk, while eight out of ten countries studied will face an increase in the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation and flash floods.
Increased humidity
Increased humidity can cause additional heat-related suffering for athletes, officials, and spectators. Higher levels of humidity can make heat feel more intense and reduce the body’s ability to perform certain functions, such as sweating. Additionally, high levels of humidity can cause issues with the health and growth of certain grass varieties that may be used on pitches. The report found that most climate regions will experience periods of higher humidity, impacting the ability to play rugby.
Adaptation
To reduce the impacts of climate change on rugby, some adaptations will need to be made in the future. World Rugby has suggested in their report the development and implementation of individual sustainability plans, to help reduce rugby’s environmental impact. As well as this, climate projections will need to be considered when implementing new policies to prepare the game for a changing climate.
In a recent blog, we shared details of a piece of work by the Met Office which explores expected future climatic conditions for a range of range of cultural, sporting and social events across the UK. The study compares observations and climate projections for temperature and rainfall may change in the future for the start of the Six Nations (February) at the Twickenham (London), Murrayfield (Edinburgh) and Principality (Cardiff) stadiums.
Climate change already has, and will likely continue to affect rugby, but with research and the implementation of new strategies and adaptation, risks can be minimised to allow fans and athletes to continue to enjoy the sport.
The Met Office has just published its latest briefing on Arctic and Antarctic sea ice.
The update doesn’t reveal any record-breaking figures, but it does reveal that sea ice loss remains a serious issue.
Alex West who co-ordinates the sea ice briefings said: “After last year’s record-breaking minimum extent of sea ice in the Antarctic, the latest update shows greater sea ice extent than last year, but it is still the second lowest on record for the time of year.
Following a warm June, Arctic sea ice extent is below average for the time of year but some way above record low levels, with conditions fairly typical of recent years.
“Extent is particularly low in the Laptev Sea and in the Atlantic sector, but nearer average in other parts of the Arctic.
“This year’s September Arctic sea ice extent is likely to be well below average, but there are not yet heightened indications of a new record low.”
The Advancing Arctic Capabilities programme – a new project led by the Met Office -brings international partners to develop an improved understanding of what is happening to the region’s ice, ocean and atmosphere to support global climate resilience.
The project will deliver cutting-edge insights into Arctic weather patterns and ocean currents.
Hurricane Beryl, which has been tearing through the Caribbean, has been hitting the headlines for several reasons.
Firstly, there is the undeniable fact that during her existence as a Category 4 and 5 hurricane Beryl caused much damage and loss of life across several nations and territories, including Grenada, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Jamaica and the British Overseas Territory of the Cayman Islands.
Satellite image of Hurricane Beryl crossing Jamaica in early July 2024
Secondly, Beryl has become infamous for being the earliest Category 5 hurricane in the historical record in the Atlantic Basin. Category 5 is the highest ranking for hurricanes requiring sustained wind speeds of at least 157 mph. Hurricane Beryl’s wind actually peaked at 165 mph on 2 July. The earliest date in the year any previous Atlantic hurricane had achieved winds of this strength was a full month later on 5 August.
Active hurricane season
Julian Heming is a Met Office tropical cyclone expert who has been studying these systems for many years. He said: “In the second half of May several prediction centres, including the Met Office, forecast an active Atlantic hurricane season with between 150% and 200% of usual activity.
“These Atlantic seasonal forecasts have been influenced by the development of cooler waters in the equatorial eastern Pacific in recent months – in line with the anticipated La Niña or cooler phase of the naturally-variable El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.
“Developing La Niña conditions have a known association with a more active Atlantic hurricane season. So, we know that natural variation in the climate system has a huge observable effect on hurricane activity.
“But this trend towards La Niña favouring hurricane development would not solely explain Hurricane Beryl and the prediction of an active hurricane season.
“Sea temperatures across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea have been well above average since the Spring of 2023 which provides fuel for intense hurricanes like Beryl. There is much meteorologists do not yet understand about how these high sea-surface temperatures have developed and why they have persisted for so long. This is an active area of research.”
“Furthermore, higher sea-surface temperatures in line with a warming climate are expected to favour the development of a greater proportion of intense tropical cyclones in the long term.”
International effort
Will Lang is the Met Office’s head of Situational Awareness. He said: “Met Office forecasts are a crucial part of the international effort to predict Atlantic hurricanes, and our experts work at the heart of UK Government’s international response to damaging hurricanes such as Beryl.”
You can watch an interview about Hurricane Beryl here.
