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Job gains expected again in March. What to look for in Friday’s report

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A person works on a Bowlus recreational vehicle at Bowlus’ factory in Oxnard, California, Feb. 23, 2024.

Timothy Aeppel | Reuters

The March nonfarm payrolls count likely will indicate hiring continuing at a solid pace, though some weakening foundations of the labor market could take greater focus when the Labor Department releases its key report Friday morning.

Job growth is expected to come in at 200,000 for the period, according to the Dow Jones consensus forecast. If that’s correct, it will mark a slowdown from February’s initially reported 275,000 but is still a strong pace by historical terms.

Yet a funny thing has been happening with the jobs reports recently: Initially strong numbers have tended to be lowered in subsequent estimates, raising questions about whether the jobs situation is as positive as it looks.

That will be just one of several key areas in focus when the report is released at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Strong, but how strong?

The trend “makes me wonder about the credibility of the first number,” said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade Americas. “So I’ll be looking for the revisions from the prior month to see if they’re going to be knocked down, and most likely they will be. That’s why if you get a big number, take it with a grain of salt.”

There is some anticipation on Wall Street of an upside surprise: Goldman Sachs raised its initial forecast to 240,000, an increase of 25,000, following strong private payroll data from ADP showing a gain of 184,000 on the month, and other indicators.

Drivers of growth

Inflation signals

Federal Reserve officials will watch all those factors for signs of inflation pressures. Stocks have been under pressure this week as investors worry about the direction of monetary policy.

Average hourly earnings are projected to have increased 0.3% in March, which would be a jump from 0.1% in February, though the estimate for the annual gain is 4.1%, or 0.2 percentage point less.

If the consensus calls are correct, it’s unlikely to move the needle much for the Fed, which is expected to begin cutting interest rates gradually starting in June, according to futures market pricing tracked by the CME Group.

“Unless there is a wildly positive or outright tragic employment report, they’re going to stay on course,” North said. “They’ve been really clear recently pushing back on the market, saying we’re in no big hurry, inflation is not down to 2%.”

North said he expects the Fed to wait until July before it starts cutting rates — contrary to current market expectations.

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Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi dead in helicopter crash

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Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi has died in a helicopter crash, state media reported on Monday.

The helicopter carrying the president came down on Sunday in a remote and mountainous region of the country’s north-west, according to Tasnim News Agency, which is closely linked to the elite Revolutionary Guard. Rescue teams battled for hours to reach the crash site, with fog and snow hindering efforts.

State media showed video footage of a convoy of ambulances struggling to make their way through fog up a mountain road. The crash site was in Arasbaran Forest near the border with Azerbaijan, according to Tasnim.

Helicopter Iranian president’s convoy crashes-2

Iran’s foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian was also on board the helicopter as part of Raisi’s entourage.

They were returning from a visit to the country’s north-western province of East Azerbaijan, where they took part in the inauguration of a dam. The president of northern neighbour Azerbaijan was present at the ceremony as well.

Raisi, 63, was elected in 2021 in a vote with a record-low turnout in the country’s history. He had been expected to seek re-election next year, and his name had emerged in political circles as a top candidate to succeed Iran’s supreme leader, 85-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The president showed unconditional loyalty to the ayatollah and maintained close relations with the Revolutionary Guard. After decades of tense relations between Iran’s presidents and the supreme leader over the extent of their powers, Raisi was the first to end these tensions.

This is a developing story



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China’s EV makers are having more trouble paying their bills and now take 2 to 3 times longer than Tesla does

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The time it’s taking for some of China’s electric-car makers to pay suppliers is ballooning — a further sign of stress in the nation’s increasingly cutthroat auto market.

Nio Inc. was taking around 295 days to clear its receipts payable, the vast majority of which are owed to suppliers, at the end of 2023 versus 197 days in 2021, according to the most recent available data compiled by Bloomberg. Xpeng Inc., another US-listed Chinese EV maker, was taking 221 days to honor its obligations to vendors and related parties, up from 179 days, the data show.

Elon Musk’s Tesla Inc., by comparison, only took around 101 days, and that period has remained largely stable in the past three years.

The extended payment cycles are indicative of the pressure many automakers are under in China, where economic growth remains sluggish and consumer sentiment is subdued. That’s translated into reduced demand for electric cars, and the once fast-growing market is now beset with intense price wars and crunched profit margins.

Since Beijing phased out a national subsidy program for EV purchases in 2022, some smaller manufacturers have been pushed to the brink. WM Motors filed for restructuring in October, and Human Horizons Group Inc., the owner of premium EV brand HiPhi, suspended operations for at least six months in February.

“Everybody’s suffering,” said Jochen Siebert, managing director at consultancy JSC Automotive. “For manufacturers, price reductions mean less money coming in. So the money they owe to their suppliers may be necessary for them to remain liquid.”

Representatives for Nio and Xpeng didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Delayed payments are starting to have a knock-on effects at auto-parts suppliers, Siebert said.

“Tier-three or four suppliers really get bitten, because they can’t pass it on,” he said, adding the EV sector may see a “messy consolidation” as suppliers go bankrupt, quickly causing production issues for automakers down the line.

Indeed Jiaxing, Zhejiang-based Minth Group Ltd., a supplier of exterior body parts, saw its accounts and notes receivables surge more than 40% to 4.74 billion yuan ($656 million) as of December from the end of 2020, while its cash and equivalents shrank by almost one-third to 4.2 billion yuan over the same period, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Hunan Yuneng New Energy Battery Material Co., which is a major supplier to BYD Co., according to data compiled by Bloomberg, saw its accounts and notes receivables more than triple to 10.43 billion yuan at the end of 2022 from a year earlier, while cash reserves fell to 435.2 million yuan.

“The price war won’t end soon and the stress eventually will be delivered to suppliers,” said Zhu Lin, a Shanghai-based managing director with turnaround management firm Alvarez & Marsal.

“We’ve seen more car components producers approaching us to improve their performance and some of them are thinking about offloading unprofitable businesses,” Zhu said. “The weak ones in the supply chain will face a high risk of being kicked out of the game.”

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Russian strikes on Ukraine’s Kharkiv region kill at least 11

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A view shows a crater that appeared after a Russian missile strike on a structure at a resort, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Kharkiv, Ukraine May 19, 2024. REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko

Valentyn Ogirenko | Reuters

Russia struck a busy lakeside resort on the edge of Ukraine’s second largest city on Sunday and also attacked villages in the surrounding region, killing at least 11 people and wounding scores.

The missile strikes were the latest in what have been constant Russian attacks in recent weeks on the Kharkiv region of northeastern Ukraine, where Russian troops have launched an offensive.

Valentyna, 69, had blood running down her face at the lakeside resort area where her home had been destroyed and a busy restaurant nearby been obliterated. Her husband was killed down by the water, she said, gesturing to the area near the shore where there was now a crater, rubble and corpses.

“To lose my husband, to lose my house, to lose everything in the world, it hurts, it hurts me,” she shouted through tears “They (the Russians) are animals, why do they need to kill people?”

Prosecutors said six people were killed there, one was still missing and 27 wounded. Rescuers said the initial strike was followed by a second strike around 20 minutes later, targeting emergency crews at the scene in a so-called “double tap”.

“There were never any soldiers here,” said Yaroslav Trofimko, a police inspector who arrived after the first strike and was then caught up in the second. “It was a Sunday, people were supposed to be here to rest, children were supposed to he here, pregnant women, resting, enjoying a normal way of life.”

Another five people were killed and 9 injured later in the day in two villages in Kupiansk district. Local governor Oleh Syniehubov said Russian forces shelled two villages of the district with a self-propelled multiple rocket launcher.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy again called on Western allies to supply Kyiv with additional air defence systems to protect Kharkiv and other cities.

“The world can stop Russian terror – and to do so, the lack of political will among leaders must be overcome,” Zelenskyy said on Telegram.

“Two Patriots for Kharkiv will make a fundamental difference,” he said, referring to Patriot missile defence systems. Air defence systems for other cities and sufficient support for soldiers on the front line would ensure Russia’s defeat, the president added



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