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Putin’s War Will Soon Reach Russians’ Tax Bills

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President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia is about to institute a rare tax increase on corporations and high earners, a move that reflects both the burgeoning costs of his war in Ukraine and the firm control he has over the Russian elite as he embarks on a fifth term in office.

Financial technocrats in Mr. Putin’s government are searching for new ways to fund not just an expensive war in Ukraine but also a broader confrontation with the West that is likely to remain costly for years. Russia is allocating nearly a third of its overall 2024 budget to national defense spending this year, a huge increase, adding to a deficit that the Kremlin has taken pains to keep in check.

The proposed tax increase underscores Mr. Putin’s rising confidence about his political control over the Russian elite and his country’s economic resilience at home, showing that he is willing to risk alienating parts of society to fund the war. It would represent the first major tax overhaul in over a decade.

“I think that this is a real sign of how comfortable he is,” said Richard Connolly, an expert on the Russian economy at Oxford Analytica, a strategic analysis firm. “The fact that they are doing it — they are looking to repair the house whilst the weather is good, or at least reinforce the walls from a fiscal point of view.”

Military spending and high oil prices have buoyed the Russian economy and driven up wages, despite causing higher inflation and shortages in the labor market; that is probably leading financial officials to see the current moment as a good time to push through tax increases.

Those responsible for paying Russia’s bills cannot predict how much Mr. Putin’s future geopolitical moves will cost or whether Western sanctions will further limit income.

“From Moscow’s point of view, they are looking in pretty good shape, and now is a good time to do these things,” Mr. Connolly said. “Even the people who it will fall on have had a good couple of years and look like they are going to have a good year ahead.”

Few details are known about the planned increase. In a speech on Wednesday, Mr. Putin said his government was assessing various proposals. He said the new tax arrangements would remain fixed for a long period to ensure stability.

“Modernization of the fiscal system should ensure a more equitable distribution of the tax burden, while stimulating businesses that develop and invest, including in infrastructure, social and training projects,” Mr. Putin said.

Most Russians pay income tax at a flat rate of 13 percent, significantly lower than what taxpayers in the United States and Western Europe typically pay. In an interview in March, Mr. Putin said he planned to introduce a new progressive tax scale in part to alleviate poverty, a popular message among many Russians who support increasing taxes on the country’s rich, which have historically been low.

A tax that largely spares lower-income earners could also help mute discontent over the war among poorer Russians, who are providing much of the manpower for the army and bearing the brunt of the casualties. Mr. Putin has signaled that the tax overhaul will include special incentives for certain groups, which could include Russians directly involved in the war effort or families with three or more children.

In internal discussions, Russian officials have considered raising the personal income tax for earnings over a million rubles ($10,860) a year to 15 percent from 13 percent, and increasing the rate for earnings above five million rubles a year ($54,300) to 20 percent from 15 percent, according to a report by the independent Russian investigative outlet Important Stories, which cited unnamed government officials and was confirmed by Bloomberg News.

The change is likely to hit particularly hard in Moscow, whose residents earn some of the country’s highest salaries. The average Russian salary last year was about 884,500 rubles ($9,606), according to the state statistics agency, Rosstat. In Moscow, it was nearly double, or about 1,636,800 rubles ($17,776).

The government is also considering raising the tax on corporate profits to 25 percent from 20 percent, Important Stories, an independent news outlet, reported. The change in corporate taxation is considered one of the key ways to increase the share of revenue from sources other than the oil and gas sector.

About a third of the Russian federal budget comes from oil and gas, meaning a substantive drop in prices in that industry could impede Moscow’s ability to fund the war, said Heli Simola, a senior economist at the Bank of Finland.

“They are not thinking about whether the companies are happy or not,” Ms. Simola said. “They want to get the money, and they also need it, and they want to show the companies they have to do their part in financing the war and the common cause.”

The planned new tax policies demonstrate how the whole of Russian society, from business executives down to mobilized soldiers, are being pulled into the war effort, which has become the defining principle of Russian public life.

Still, apart from high earners, many Russians would not pay significantly more in income taxes under the proposals being discussed, limiting the potential political backlash for Mr. Putin.

Moscow’s defense expenditures have skyrocketed on account of the war. Compared with the year before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian government’s spending on national defense has more than tripled. Russia’s financial technocrats are taking advantage of the current economic moment to raise funds for future war expenditures.

“No one knows Putin’s projections” for the war, said Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “There are rumors and anticipation of an upcoming Russian escalation. They don’t have a crystal ball; that’s why they want to have this money now.”

For much of the 1990s, Russia operated under a complicated tax code with limited enforcement, allowing many Russians to avoid paying taxes altogether.

But in the years after Mr. Putin came to power nearly a quarter century ago, the nation underwent a tax revolution. The introduction of the 13 percent flat tax on personal income encouraged compliance, drastically increasing income tax revenue for the state but raising questions of fairness in a society with significant income inequality.

Russia technically departed from the flat tax in 2021, requiring residents earning over five million rubles per year to pay 15 percent instead of 13 percent. A report in the Russian business newspaper RBK found that excess revenues derived from the increase came overwhelmingly from Moscow.

Beyond running a deficit, Russian finance officials have found creative ways to raise more money to fund the war since Mr. Putin launched the invasion in early 2022.

Russia changed the way it calculates taxes on oil companies last year to fill government coffers. It taxed exits by foreign companies leaving Russia and introduced new export duties on goods like oil, timber and machinery. And Mr. Putin placed a “windfall” tax on companies’ excess profits.

Many businesses in Russia are happy to pay higher corporate tax rates so long as the surprise windfall taxes and payments end, but that isn’t guaranteed.

“You increase the corporation tax now, then say you will try your best to refuse windfall taxes, but then if the war carries on, these things are likely to continue,” said Mr. Connolly, who predicted that higher Russian expenditures on defense would persist for a long time.

Ms. Prokopenko, a former official at the Russian central bank, said the Russian authorities, having initially tapped more oil-and-gas-related revenue to fund the war, would now go after all corporate profits.

“They need to do what’s called income mobilization,” she said. “And increasing taxation is part of this.”

Oleg Matsnev and Alina Lobzina contributed reporting from Berlin.



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Former CIA director reacts to Stefanik’s remarks about ‘wiping’ Hamas ‘off the face of the Earth’

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House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik delivered remarks at the Israeli Knesset Sunday, saying victory for Israel in the war against Hamas starts with “wiping” those responsible for the October 7 terrorist attacks “off the face of the Earth” and calling for a return to former President Donald Trump’s policies. Former CIA director Leon Panetta reacts.



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Texas crime victims liaison pleads guilty to human smuggling with county vehicle

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A Texas crime victims coordinator who was employed by the Starr County District Attorney’s Office has pleaded guilty to using a county vehicle to smuggle immigrants into the United States.

Bernice Garza pleaded guilty Friday to conspiracy to transport undocumented people within the United States, according to a report from KRGV.

Two others, Magali Rosa and Juan Antonio Charles, were also arrested in connection with the investigation and have pleaded guilty to human smuggling charges, according to the report.

TEXAS CRIME VICTIMS LIAISON ARRESTED AFTER ALLEGEDLY USING COUNTY-ISSUED CAR IN HUMAN SMUGGLING SCHEME

Texas human smuggling arrest

A 2015 Chevrolet Traverse with the emblem of the Starr County District Attorney’s Office in Texas. An employee of the office was fired after the car was used in a human smuggling scheme, authorities said. (Victoria County Sheriffs Office)

Garza was arrested in December 2022 after a traffic stop in Victoria County noted that the vehicle registered with the county was making “numerous unauthorized trips to the Houston area,” the criminal complaint said.

Magali Rosa was the driver of the vehicle, according to police, while Garza and Charles were among the passengers in the vehicle.

Police say Rosa tried to argue that Garza was the Starr County district attorney during the stop, though she later confessed to making over 40 smuggling trips from Rio Grande City to Houston in the government vehicle.

Texas

Houston skyline (Reuters/Richard Carson)

FOX NEWS CREW WITNESSES DRAMATIC HUMAN SMUGGLING BUSTS BY TEXAS AUTHORITIES

“This investigation is an example of no one being above the law, and our office taking swift action in eliminating public corruption,” the DA’s office said in a statement after the arrests.

Garza was soon terminated from the DA’s office, while the four migrants who were in the vehicle at the time of the stop were turned over to the U.S. Border Patrol.

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Sentencing for Garza and Charles was set for Sept. 28, the reporting notes, while sentencing for Magali Rosa is set for June 27.



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At Chaotic Rally in Brooklyn, Police Violently Confront Protesters

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A large protest in Brooklyn against Israel’s military offensive in Gaza erupted into a chaotic scene on Saturday, as the police arrested dozens of pro-Palestinian demonstrators and at times confronted them violently.

In videos posted on social media, officers can be seen punching at least three people who were prone on the ground at the demonstration in the Bay Ridge neighborhood. The aggression was corroborated by witnesses. Another protester who was filming the police was tackled and arrested. A police spokesman declined to comment on the officers using force on protesters.

The police said Sunday that 40 people were arrested. They have not released details on the charges the protesters face.

“I saw police indiscriminately grabbing people off the street and the sidewalk,” said Nerdeen Kiswani, founder of Within Our Lifetime, an activist group led by Palestinians that organized the demonstration. “They were grabbing people at random.”

According to the Police Department’s patrol guide, officers must use “only the reasonable force necessary to gain control or custody of a subject.”

In recent years, Within Our Lifetime has put on an annual mid-May rally in Bay Ridge, a neighborhood with a large Arab population, to commemorate what Palestinians call the Nakba, or “catastrophe” — when hundreds of thousands of Palestinians were forced from their homes during the war that led to Israel’s founding in 1948.

Given the war in Gaza and months of protests in New York, this year’s protest was charged from the start. It started at 2 p.m. at the intersection of Fifth and Bay Ridge Avenues. Within about 25 minutes, a large group of officers arrived and warned protesters to get onto the sidewalk. Those who remained in the street would be arrested, the police told them.

From there, the event alternated between protest marches and standoffs with the police. In one video taken by Katie Smith, an independent journalist, a police commander in a white shirt delivers at least three punches to a person lying on the pavement. In another video she recorded, an officer punches a man who is on the ground at least six times and a white-shirted commander aims a kick at the man, though it is not possible to see if it landed.

In a separate instance filmed by another independent journalist, Talia Jane, an officer flings a protester against a signpost and then hurls him to the pavement, where he is pinned by two officers as he is punched by a third.

The footage of the police, including at least one commander, pummeling protesters recalled some of the N.Y.P.D. conduct caught on video at the Black Lives Matter demonstrations in 2020. The city ended up paying $13 million to settle a class-action suit brought by those protesters.

In a video of the Saturday protest posted on Twitch, half a dozen people could be seen filming a group of police officers and commanders walking on Bay Ridge Avenue. A police commander grabbed the nearest one, followed by two more commanders and a scrum of blue-shirted officers.

The protester was shoved to the ground, handcuffed and arrested. Other people in the crowd continued recording the event.

Those arrested were led to police vans and driven to the headquarters in Manhattan. A light rain began to fall, and by 8 p.m. the protest had dispersed.

Sabir Hasko contributed reporting.



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