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Nouriel Roubini: Trump re-election is biggest threat facing investors

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Donald Trump prides himself on his economic record in office, yet Nouriel Roubini warns his re-election would deal a blow to global growth, stoke inflation, and fuel fiscal deficits.

In an opinion column, the professor emeritus of NYU’s Stern School of Business argued the America First protectionist agenda would spark new trade wars—both with rivals and allies—while more tax breaks would undermine investor credibility in the dollar. 

“Trump’s proposed economic-policy agenda is now the greatest threat to economies and markets around the world,” he wrote in a comment published by Dow Jones & Co’s MarketWatch on Saturday.

Known by his nickname “Dr. Doom”, Roubini rose to fame as one of the very few to warn of the 2008 sub-prime meltdown. The trauma helped discredit mainstream policy experts tasked with shielding everyday Americans from harm, and gave rise to an anti-establishment movement that eventually put Trump in the White House.

Once there, the real-estate tycoon broke with orthodox economic doctrine by using the guise of national security to slap tariffs on foreign steel and renegotiating NAFTA

More importantly, however, he was the first to campaign eight years ago in favor of an adversarial trade stance with Beijing, at the time still America’s largest creditor. By the end of his term, he imposed punitive duties on $250 billion worth of goods coming from China. 

“There is no doubt that U.S. protectionist policies would become more severe,” Roubini wrote, citing threats to raise tariffs on all imported goods to 10% up from around 2% currently, which could anger allies in Europe, Japan and South Korea. 

Roubini sees the ‘specter of a financial crisis’

In February, Trump already pledged to hike duties on imported Chinese goods to a 60% minimum amid recent fears in Washington of a flood of cheap EVs from the likes of Tesla-killer BYD.

Roubini said hiking tariffs on both rivals and allies would lead to the “balkanization of global supply chains.” The resulting inefficiencies would drive costs higher for U.S. consumers already exhausted by three years of high inflation.

Roubini further worried Trump would drive Uncle Sam’s borrowing costs higher if he succeeded in making permanent his 2017 tax legislation, which is otherwise due to sunset at the end of next year

“Tax cuts that are poised to expire would be extended, as would higher spending on defense and entitlements,” Roubini wrote, warning investors would demand even higher yields in exchange for the greater risk they shoulder. Uncertainty over U.S. fiscal probity would only worsen were Trump to replace Fed chair Jay Powell with someone perceived as beholden to the administration. 

Currently, the U.S. Treasury already needs to offer debtholders 4% to borrow money over 10 years, roughly twice the rate it needed to during Trump’s term prior to the outbreak of the pandemic.

“With private and public debts high and rising, that would introduce the specter of a financial crisis,” Roubini wrote.

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Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi dead in helicopter crash

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Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi has died in a helicopter crash, state media reported on Monday.

The helicopter carrying the president came down on Sunday in a remote and mountainous region of the country’s north-west, according to Tasnim News Agency, which is closely linked to the elite Revolutionary Guard. Rescue teams battled for hours to reach the crash site, with fog and snow hindering efforts.

State media showed video footage of a convoy of ambulances struggling to make their way through fog up a mountain road. The crash site was in Arasbaran Forest near the border with Azerbaijan, according to Tasnim.

Helicopter Iranian president’s convoy crashes-2

Iran’s foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian was also on board the helicopter as part of Raisi’s entourage.

They were returning from a visit to the country’s north-western province of East Azerbaijan, where they took part in the inauguration of a dam. The president of northern neighbour Azerbaijan was present at the ceremony as well.

Raisi, 63, was elected in 2021 in a vote with a record-low turnout in the country’s history. He had been expected to seek re-election next year, and his name had emerged in political circles as a top candidate to succeed Iran’s supreme leader, 85-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The president showed unconditional loyalty to the ayatollah and maintained close relations with the Revolutionary Guard. After decades of tense relations between Iran’s presidents and the supreme leader over the extent of their powers, Raisi was the first to end these tensions.

This is a developing story



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China’s EV makers are having more trouble paying their bills and now take 2 to 3 times longer than Tesla does

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The time it’s taking for some of China’s electric-car makers to pay suppliers is ballooning — a further sign of stress in the nation’s increasingly cutthroat auto market.

Nio Inc. was taking around 295 days to clear its receipts payable, the vast majority of which are owed to suppliers, at the end of 2023 versus 197 days in 2021, according to the most recent available data compiled by Bloomberg. Xpeng Inc., another US-listed Chinese EV maker, was taking 221 days to honor its obligations to vendors and related parties, up from 179 days, the data show.

Elon Musk’s Tesla Inc., by comparison, only took around 101 days, and that period has remained largely stable in the past three years.

The extended payment cycles are indicative of the pressure many automakers are under in China, where economic growth remains sluggish and consumer sentiment is subdued. That’s translated into reduced demand for electric cars, and the once fast-growing market is now beset with intense price wars and crunched profit margins.

Since Beijing phased out a national subsidy program for EV purchases in 2022, some smaller manufacturers have been pushed to the brink. WM Motors filed for restructuring in October, and Human Horizons Group Inc., the owner of premium EV brand HiPhi, suspended operations for at least six months in February.

“Everybody’s suffering,” said Jochen Siebert, managing director at consultancy JSC Automotive. “For manufacturers, price reductions mean less money coming in. So the money they owe to their suppliers may be necessary for them to remain liquid.”

Representatives for Nio and Xpeng didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Delayed payments are starting to have a knock-on effects at auto-parts suppliers, Siebert said.

“Tier-three or four suppliers really get bitten, because they can’t pass it on,” he said, adding the EV sector may see a “messy consolidation” as suppliers go bankrupt, quickly causing production issues for automakers down the line.

Indeed Jiaxing, Zhejiang-based Minth Group Ltd., a supplier of exterior body parts, saw its accounts and notes receivables surge more than 40% to 4.74 billion yuan ($656 million) as of December from the end of 2020, while its cash and equivalents shrank by almost one-third to 4.2 billion yuan over the same period, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Hunan Yuneng New Energy Battery Material Co., which is a major supplier to BYD Co., according to data compiled by Bloomberg, saw its accounts and notes receivables more than triple to 10.43 billion yuan at the end of 2022 from a year earlier, while cash reserves fell to 435.2 million yuan.

“The price war won’t end soon and the stress eventually will be delivered to suppliers,” said Zhu Lin, a Shanghai-based managing director with turnaround management firm Alvarez & Marsal.

“We’ve seen more car components producers approaching us to improve their performance and some of them are thinking about offloading unprofitable businesses,” Zhu said. “The weak ones in the supply chain will face a high risk of being kicked out of the game.”

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Russian strikes on Ukraine’s Kharkiv region kill at least 11

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A view shows a crater that appeared after a Russian missile strike on a structure at a resort, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Kharkiv, Ukraine May 19, 2024. REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko

Valentyn Ogirenko | Reuters

Russia struck a busy lakeside resort on the edge of Ukraine’s second largest city on Sunday and also attacked villages in the surrounding region, killing at least 11 people and wounding scores.

The missile strikes were the latest in what have been constant Russian attacks in recent weeks on the Kharkiv region of northeastern Ukraine, where Russian troops have launched an offensive.

Valentyna, 69, had blood running down her face at the lakeside resort area where her home had been destroyed and a busy restaurant nearby been obliterated. Her husband was killed down by the water, she said, gesturing to the area near the shore where there was now a crater, rubble and corpses.

“To lose my husband, to lose my house, to lose everything in the world, it hurts, it hurts me,” she shouted through tears “They (the Russians) are animals, why do they need to kill people?”

Prosecutors said six people were killed there, one was still missing and 27 wounded. Rescuers said the initial strike was followed by a second strike around 20 minutes later, targeting emergency crews at the scene in a so-called “double tap”.

“There were never any soldiers here,” said Yaroslav Trofimko, a police inspector who arrived after the first strike and was then caught up in the second. “It was a Sunday, people were supposed to be here to rest, children were supposed to he here, pregnant women, resting, enjoying a normal way of life.”

Another five people were killed and 9 injured later in the day in two villages in Kupiansk district. Local governor Oleh Syniehubov said Russian forces shelled two villages of the district with a self-propelled multiple rocket launcher.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy again called on Western allies to supply Kyiv with additional air defence systems to protect Kharkiv and other cities.

“The world can stop Russian terror – and to do so, the lack of political will among leaders must be overcome,” Zelenskyy said on Telegram.

“Two Patriots for Kharkiv will make a fundamental difference,” he said, referring to Patriot missile defence systems. Air defence systems for other cities and sufficient support for soldiers on the front line would ensure Russia’s defeat, the president added



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