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Apple needs China as it embarks on legal battles in U.S. and EU, Wedbush says

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There’s troubled waters under the Apple-China bridge. After the company reported weaker sales in the region, its shares dropped 2.9%, wiping $84 billion off its market valuation. In response, CEO Tim Cook doubled down on Apple’s investments in China: He flew to Shanghai last week to be present for its grand opening for a flagship store in Shanghai, and announced plans to launch Apple’s Vision Pro headset in China later this year. 

It might take more than a new store to calm the waters. Chinese consumers have been shifting their love from the iPhone to domestic smartphone makers—most notably Shenzhen-based Huawei, whose new high-quality line of Mate 60 smartphones has proved to be fierce competition. Now Apple faces falling sales in the region, its third biggest market—and antitrust actions from the U.S and Europe add salt to the wound. 

Dan Ives, a senior equity analyst at Wedbush, told Fortune “the timing is ironic that Cook is in China while the antitrust issues come from both the US and EU.” 

“This is a critical time for Apple to grab the olive branch from Beijing and don’t look back,” Ives said, adding that “China is key for Apple,” and that the company has struggled to grow there. True enough, Apple’s iPhone sales plummeted 24% in the first six weeks of 2024, according to a Counterpoint Research report. Over that same period, sales for its competitor Huawei surged by 64%. 

Cook spent several days in China last week—in part to help open the new store, which is Apple’s 57th store in China and the world’s second largest after the one on Fifth Avenue in New York, but he also met with key suppliers, which, according to a note by Wedbush, “was important with worries around a manufacturing supply chain shift out of China into India, Vietnam, and other countries” over the next few years. 

Ives leaned hopeful: “This trip could start to turn around things in China after a turbulent year.” 

Turbulent, indeed. Earlier this month, Apple was fined nearly $2 billion by the European Union for anticompetitive music-streaming practices. Apple now faces antitrust actions in the U.S. and Europe—and it’s one of the first to be investigated by the European Union after it passed the Digital Marketing Act, a law implemented in November 2022 that’s aimed at dismantling monopolies and reducing anticompetitive behavior by some of the world’s biggest tech companies. 

In America, Apple is also at the center of an antitrust lawsuit, filed by the U.S Department of Justice, which alleges Apple’s control of app distribution and programming interfaces suppress technologies like cloud streaming games and cross-platform messaging apps that could otherwise work equally well across different smartphones. Apple said it will defend the claims. 

The new headwinds, in the form of lawsuit probes, add to the pressure Apple was already facing in China before. Its performance in the region—which accounts for about 20% of its sales, according to the Wedbush note—has been slipping for years. Part of it is because the U.S. and China have been reducing their economic reliance on each other, as seen through a 2019 Trump administration order preventing U.S. tech firms from dealing with Huawei less than two weeks after the Chinese smartphone maker unveiled its trademark Mate 60 Pro phone

In turn, China has invested in its own chips and smartphone parts, while its consumers have used their purchasing power to show solidarity for its domestic smartphone maker. Huawei claimed the second-largest share of the country’s smartphone phone market at 17%, compared to 9% of the share last year, the New York Times reported

To turn things around, Wedbush analysts said Apple will “need to turn around this headwind into a tailwind heading into the iPhone 16 release this Fall and it all starts with reaffirming Apple’s presence in China.”



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Brazilians rally to protest supreme court judge’s decision to ban X

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Tens of thousands of Brazilians joined an independence day rally called by members of the rightwing opposition in protest against a supreme court judge who banned Elon Musk’s social media platform X in the country. 

Dressed in the national colours of yellow and green, attendees at Saturday’s demonstration in São Paulo held posters demanding the removal of justice Alexandre de Moraes, who has attracted controversy for a wide-ranging crackdown on digital disinformation. 

“I came here today in favour of freedom of expression. The constitution is being violated,” said 25 year-old radiologist Mayara Ribeira, wearing the shirt of the Brazilian football team. “The judge should be impeached”. 

X went offline in Latin America’s most populous nation just over a week ago after it ignored court orders to block certain accounts suspected of spreading falsehoods, many belonging to supporters of former hard-right president Jair Bolsonaro. 

It affected some 20mn users and marked an escalation of a months-long row over takedown decrees between Musk and Moraes, whom the tech entrepreneur has accused of censorship. 

“I don’t want anybody to be silenced, if they are leftwing or rightwing,” said retiree Elayne Nunes, 58, who travelled from the neighbouring state of Minas Gerais. “I’m happy that Elon Musk has brought to international attention what is happening in Brazil”.

The case has turned into a cause célèbre in the global debate about online free speech and energised Brazil’s populist conservative movement, which claims to be unfairly targeted by the judge. 

Allies of Moraes frame his actions as necessary to safeguard democracy against fake news, but opponents accuse him of eroding liberties. 

The blackout of X has divided opinion in Brazil. A survey by AtlasIntel found nearly 51 per cent of respondents disagreed with the ban, versus just over 48 per cent in favour.

Speakers at the event on Avenida Paulista urged senators to launch an impeachment of the judge, who has also become a target for wider criticisms that Brazil’s supreme court is overreaching its legal limits. 

They also appealed for an amnesty for people arrested in connection with the storming of government buildings in Brasília on January 8, 2023 by radical Bolsonaro supporters. 

Many of the rioters called for a military coup against leftwing president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who defeated Bolsonaro in the previous year’s election. 

“I hope that the federal senate puts a stop to this dictator Alexandre de Moraes, who does more harm to Brazil than Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva himself,” Bolsonaro said on stage. 

The ex-president faces a number of supreme court investigations from his time in office, including over an alleged coup plot — that was never implemented — to stay in power.

Researchers at the University of São Paulo estimated there were 45,400 people at Saturday’s event in Brazil’s largest city.

The trigger for X’s suspension was its failure to meet a deadline set by Moraes to appoint a new legal representative in the country, as required by domestic law. Musk had closed the company’s local office last month in protest at the judge’s orders. 

In his decision to block access to the platform, Moraes said X was seeking to create an environment of “total impunity” and a “lawless land” on Brazilian social media ahead of municipal elections next month.

Creomar de Souza at consultancy Dharma Political Risk said impeachment of the justice was unlikely for now: “It looks like we’re in for a long battle between Moraes and political forces in Brazil and abroad”.



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Russia economy: Relying more China’s yuan is backfiring

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After the U.S. and its allies sanctioned Russia in 2022 for its invasion of Ukraine, Moscow turned away from the dollar and euro in international transactions and relied more on China’s yuan.

That coincided with more trade between the two countries as Russia was largely shut out of Western markets as well as the global financial system.

By June, the yuan accounted for 99.6% of the Russian foreign exchange market, according to Bloomberg, which cited data from Russia’s central bank. And Russian commercial banks ramped up corporate loans denominated in yuan.

But this dependence on the yuan is now backfiring as top Russian banks are running out of the Chinese currency, Reuters reported on Thursday.

“We cannot lend in yuan because we have nothing to cover our foreign currency positions with,” German Gref, CEO of top Russian lender Sberbank, said at an economic forum.

That’s because the U.S. expanded its definition of Russia’s military industry earlier this year, thereby widening the potential scope of Chinese firms that could get hit with secondary sanctions for doing business with Moscow.

As a result, Chinese banks have been reluctant to transfer yuan to Russian counterparts while servicing foreign trade payments, leaving transactions in limbo for months. With yuan liquidity drying up from China, Russian companies have tapped the central bank for yuan via currency swaps.

At the start of this month, banks raised a record 35 billion yuan from Russian’s central bank through these swaps, according to Reuters. And banks were expecting more help.

“I think the central bank can do something,” Andrei Kostin, CEO of second-largest bank VTB, said Thursday. “They hopefully understand the need to increase the liquidity offer through swaps.”

But on Friday, Russia’s central bank dashed those hopes, calling on banks to curb corporate loans denominated in yuan.

The Bank of Russia also said in a report that swaps are only meant for short-term stabilization of the domestic currency market and are not a long-term source of funding, according to Bloomberg. But rather than simply filling the roles that dollars and euros did, yuan loans have expanded.

“The increase in yuan lending was partly caused by the replacement of loans in ‘toxic’ currencies, but 41% of the increase was down to new currency loans,” the bank said.

The central bank also released a survey that showed a quarter of Russian exporters had trouble with foreign counterparts, including blocked or returned payments even when dealing in supposedly friendly countries. And about half of exporters said the problems got worse in the second quarter from the prior quarter.

The overall Russian economy has been propped up by the government’s wartime spending as well as oil exports to China and India. But the combination of busy factories and labor shortages due to military mobilizations have stoked more inflation.

Researchers led by Yale’s Jeffrey Sonnenfeld warned the seemingly robust GDP data mask deeper problems in the economy.

“Simply put, Putin’s administration has prioritized military production over all else in the economy, at substantial cost,” they wrote. “While the defense industry expands, Russian consumers are increasingly burdened with debt, potentially setting the stage for a looming crisis. The excessive focus on military spending is crowding out productive investments in other sectors of the economy, stifling long-term growth prospects and innovation.”

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ETFs are set to hit record inflows, but this wild card could change it

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ETF Edge, September 4, 2024

Exchange-traded fund inflows have already topped monthly records in 2024, and managers think inflows could see an impact from the money market fund boom before year-end.

“With that $6 trillion plus parked in money market funds, I do think that is really the biggest wild card for the remainder of the year,” Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “Whether it be flows into REIT ETFs or just the broader ETF market, that’s going to be a real potential catalyst here to watch.”

Total assets in money market funds set a new high of $6.24 trillion this past week, according to the Investment Company Institute. Assets have hit peak levels this year as investors wait for a Federal Reserve rate cut.

“If that yield comes down, the return on money market funds should come down as well,” said State Street Global Advisors’ Matt Bartolini in the same interview. “So as rates fall, we should expect to see some of that capital that has been on the sidelines in cash when cash was sort of cool again, start to go back into the marketplace.”

Bartolini, the firm’s head of SPDR Americas Research, sees that money moving into stocks, other higher-yielding areas of the fixed income marketplace and parts of the ETF market.

“I think one of the areas that I think is probably going to pick up a little bit more is around gold ETFs,” Bartolini added. “They’ve had about 2.2 billion of inflows the last three months, really strong close last year. So I think the future is still bright for the overall industry.”

Meanwhile, Geraci expects large, megacap ETFs to benefit. He also thinks the transition could be promising for ETF inflow levels as they approach 2021 records of $909 billion.

“Assuming stocks don’t experience a massive pullback, I think investors will continue to allocate here, and ETF inflows can break that record,” he said.

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