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Activist Trian has a few levers to pull to build shareholder value at Solventum

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People walk past the New York Stock Exchange Wednesday, April 3, 2024 in New York.

Peter Morgan | AP

Company: Solventum (SOLV)

Business: Solventum, formerly known as 3M Health Care, is a global health-care company that was spun out from 3M on April 1. It has four main segments. First, there is Medical Surgical, a provider of solutions including advanced wound care, sterilization assurance, temperature management, surgical supplies, stethoscopes and medical electrodes. There is the Dental Solutions segment, which provides dental and orthodontic products and bonding agents that span the life of the tooth. The Health Information Systems segment provides health-care systems with software solutions, including computer-assisted physician documentation, direct-to-bill and coding automation, speech recognition and data visualization platforms. Finally, the Purification and Filtration segment offers filters, purifiers, cartridges and membranes.

Stock Market Value: $9.95B ($57.63 per share)

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SOLV’s performance in 2024

Activist: Trian Fund Management

Percentage Ownership:  n/a

Average Cost: n/a

Activist Commentary: Trian runs a concentrated portfolio of eight to 10 mid- to mega-cap, publicly traded companies where it actively engages with company management with the goal of enhancing long-term shareholder value. Trian, managed by Nelson Peltz, takes very few positions, but is very active in its positions. Peltz calls his formula “operational activism.” He defines it as working with the management of high-potential but underachieving companies to raise earnings by paring overhead, shedding ancillary businesses and burnishing famous brands.

What’s Happening

Bloomberg News reported on July 22 that Trian has taken a position in Solventum.

Behind the Scenes

Solventum is a global health-care company that was spun out from 3M on April 1, with 80.1% of shares distributed to 3M shareholders and the remaining 19.9% retained by 3M to be monetized within five years following the transaction. Solventum has a leading market position in numerous categories, strong performance-driven products and high brand loyalty. The company operates across four segments which accounted for $8.2 billion of revenue in 2023: Medical Surgical (56.5%), Dental Solutions (16.2%), Health Information Systems (15.7%), and Purification & Filtration (11.6%). The health-care business was consistently one of the strongest segments of 3M when it was part of the conglomerate structure, boasting the highest growth rate of any division and margins that exceeded the company average. For more than two decades, the business grew organically every year. Adding to that, the company has had 25%+ adjusted operating income margins and over $1.4 billion of free cash flow generation for each of the past three years. Despite this, the stock has not performed well since the spinoff, tumbling over 20% since the close of its first day of trading until news of Trian’s position.

As a standalone company, Solventum has been under-covered and misunderstood by the market. Despite being a spinoff from a conglomerate, Solventum itself is a mini conglomerate with four different businesses. While all of them are medical adjacent, none really share the same technology, customers, supply or distribution chain. Accordingly, it is a difficult company for investors and the sell side to analyze, and it has not seen a lot of traction in the investment community. But, as a newly independent company, there are potential tailwinds inherent in most spinoffs such as better management focus and agility and the ability to better align management compensation with the value of the business.

There are also numerous levers for value creation at Solventum, specifically re-accelerating organic growth, restoring margins while investing to drive growth, and simplifying the company’s portfolio of businesses. Beginning with organic growth, Solventum had proved an ability to grow in the low-to-mid single digits within 3M for years while being constrained by the conglomerate structure. As a pure play, it should be more agile in implementing growth initiatives and just getting growth back to 4% would create value against a backdrop of a sell side consensus of no growth. On margins, the company has a 25% earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization margin, which is a strong profit margin but could be better. That margin includes 800 basis points of corporate costs allocated to these businesses as part of 3M. As a standalone entity, it will need to remake some of these functions, but can also shed a lot of the heavy costs through management discipline. Lastly is simplification of the portfolio. Again, as a mini conglomerate, Solventum has a core business and three non-core and non-synergistic businesses with different products, sales forces, customers, manufacturing and distribution. Its segments likely have the scale to be standalone companies and trade at higher pure-play valuation multiples or could be sold to a private equity firm or a strategic acquirer. A sale of any of these businesses will allow the company to de-lever its balance sheet, currently trading at 4-times net leverage, and initiate a dividend. There is no reason why this company should trade at a price-earnings ratio that’s less than its peers. Certainly, it should not trade cheaper than 3M, as it previously was one of 3Ms best businesses.

Trian is known for being a skilled income statement activist and has helped many companies improve margins and growth. Look no further than the coffee cups in the firm’s office, which read “Sales Up, Expenses Down.” There is also no shortage of examples of Trian being a valuable corporate governance-oriented investor and creating tremendous shareholder value from the board level. But what some may not realize, is that the firm also has extensive experience with spinoffs, such as: (i) Pentair, which spun off nVent Electric plc in 2018; (ii) Kraft Foods’ move to split into two companies in 2012 and rename itself Mondelez; (iii) Dupont’s spinoff of Dow in 2019; (iv) Cadbury’s spinoff of Dr. Pepper; and (v) Ingersoll Rand’s spinoff of Allegion in 2013, to name a few. However, the most relevant spinoff is GE’s health-care division. Trian has been an active shareholder at General Electric since 2015 and called for both operational and strategic improvements. On Jan. 4, 2023, GE spun off its GE HealthCare division, as part of its plan to break into three separate companies. Since then, GE HealthCare Technologies has returned 34.45% versus a return of 26.92% for the Russell 2000 over the same period.

While Trian has a history of being an active shareholder, the firm has also created tremendous shareholder value as an engaged director. We think in this situation, the latter is appropriate. There is no activist with more experience than Trian in operational engagement in a newly spun-off company and addressing the issues and opportunities inherent in spinoffs. Moreover, if there is an opportunity to divest one or more businesses, shareholders would have comfort with a financially astute shareholder representative on the board to evaluate competing offers to assure the maximization of shareholder value. The board consists of 12 members with four directors in each class and will begin the process of phasing out the staggered board in 2025, to be fully de-staggered by 2028. Given the obvious fit, we would be surprised if this does not settle amicably with a Trian representative on the Board, but the director nomination window opens on Dec. 2, and Trian has never been one to shy away from a proxy fight if the firm feels it is necessary. It should be noted that 3M retained 19.9% of Solventum’s common stock, but has agreed to mirror voting, which will compel it to vote these shares in proportion to the votes cast by the company’s other shareholders.

Ken Squire is the founder and president of 13D Monitor, an institutional research service on shareholder activism, and the founder and portfolio manager of the 13D Activist Fund, a mutual fund that invests in a portfolio of activist 13D investments.



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Brazilians rally to protest supreme court judge’s decision to ban X

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Tens of thousands of Brazilians joined an independence day rally called by members of the rightwing opposition in protest against a supreme court judge who banned Elon Musk’s social media platform X in the country. 

Dressed in the national colours of yellow and green, attendees at Saturday’s demonstration in São Paulo held posters demanding the removal of justice Alexandre de Moraes, who has attracted controversy for a wide-ranging crackdown on digital disinformation. 

“I came here today in favour of freedom of expression. The constitution is being violated,” said 25 year-old radiologist Mayara Ribeira, wearing the shirt of the Brazilian football team. “The judge should be impeached”. 

X went offline in Latin America’s most populous nation just over a week ago after it ignored court orders to block certain accounts suspected of spreading falsehoods, many belonging to supporters of former hard-right president Jair Bolsonaro. 

It affected some 20mn users and marked an escalation of a months-long row over takedown decrees between Musk and Moraes, whom the tech entrepreneur has accused of censorship. 

“I don’t want anybody to be silenced, if they are leftwing or rightwing,” said retiree Elayne Nunes, 58, who travelled from the neighbouring state of Minas Gerais. “I’m happy that Elon Musk has brought to international attention what is happening in Brazil”.

The case has turned into a cause célèbre in the global debate about online free speech and energised Brazil’s populist conservative movement, which claims to be unfairly targeted by the judge. 

Allies of Moraes frame his actions as necessary to safeguard democracy against fake news, but opponents accuse him of eroding liberties. 

The blackout of X has divided opinion in Brazil. A survey by AtlasIntel found nearly 51 per cent of respondents disagreed with the ban, versus just over 48 per cent in favour.

Speakers at the event on Avenida Paulista urged senators to launch an impeachment of the judge, who has also become a target for wider criticisms that Brazil’s supreme court is overreaching its legal limits. 

They also appealed for an amnesty for people arrested in connection with the storming of government buildings in Brasília on January 8, 2023 by radical Bolsonaro supporters. 

Many of the rioters called for a military coup against leftwing president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who defeated Bolsonaro in the previous year’s election. 

“I hope that the federal senate puts a stop to this dictator Alexandre de Moraes, who does more harm to Brazil than Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva himself,” Bolsonaro said on stage. 

The ex-president faces a number of supreme court investigations from his time in office, including over an alleged coup plot — that was never implemented — to stay in power.

Researchers at the University of São Paulo estimated there were 45,400 people at Saturday’s event in Brazil’s largest city.

The trigger for X’s suspension was its failure to meet a deadline set by Moraes to appoint a new legal representative in the country, as required by domestic law. Musk had closed the company’s local office last month in protest at the judge’s orders. 

In his decision to block access to the platform, Moraes said X was seeking to create an environment of “total impunity” and a “lawless land” on Brazilian social media ahead of municipal elections next month.

Creomar de Souza at consultancy Dharma Political Risk said impeachment of the justice was unlikely for now: “It looks like we’re in for a long battle between Moraes and political forces in Brazil and abroad”.



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Russia economy: Relying more China’s yuan is backfiring

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After the U.S. and its allies sanctioned Russia in 2022 for its invasion of Ukraine, Moscow turned away from the dollar and euro in international transactions and relied more on China’s yuan.

That coincided with more trade between the two countries as Russia was largely shut out of Western markets as well as the global financial system.

By June, the yuan accounted for 99.6% of the Russian foreign exchange market, according to Bloomberg, which cited data from Russia’s central bank. And Russian commercial banks ramped up corporate loans denominated in yuan.

But this dependence on the yuan is now backfiring as top Russian banks are running out of the Chinese currency, Reuters reported on Thursday.

“We cannot lend in yuan because we have nothing to cover our foreign currency positions with,” German Gref, CEO of top Russian lender Sberbank, said at an economic forum.

That’s because the U.S. expanded its definition of Russia’s military industry earlier this year, thereby widening the potential scope of Chinese firms that could get hit with secondary sanctions for doing business with Moscow.

As a result, Chinese banks have been reluctant to transfer yuan to Russian counterparts while servicing foreign trade payments, leaving transactions in limbo for months. With yuan liquidity drying up from China, Russian companies have tapped the central bank for yuan via currency swaps.

At the start of this month, banks raised a record 35 billion yuan from Russian’s central bank through these swaps, according to Reuters. And banks were expecting more help.

“I think the central bank can do something,” Andrei Kostin, CEO of second-largest bank VTB, said Thursday. “They hopefully understand the need to increase the liquidity offer through swaps.”

But on Friday, Russia’s central bank dashed those hopes, calling on banks to curb corporate loans denominated in yuan.

The Bank of Russia also said in a report that swaps are only meant for short-term stabilization of the domestic currency market and are not a long-term source of funding, according to Bloomberg. But rather than simply filling the roles that dollars and euros did, yuan loans have expanded.

“The increase in yuan lending was partly caused by the replacement of loans in ‘toxic’ currencies, but 41% of the increase was down to new currency loans,” the bank said.

The central bank also released a survey that showed a quarter of Russian exporters had trouble with foreign counterparts, including blocked or returned payments even when dealing in supposedly friendly countries. And about half of exporters said the problems got worse in the second quarter from the prior quarter.

The overall Russian economy has been propped up by the government’s wartime spending as well as oil exports to China and India. But the combination of busy factories and labor shortages due to military mobilizations have stoked more inflation.

Researchers led by Yale’s Jeffrey Sonnenfeld warned the seemingly robust GDP data mask deeper problems in the economy.

“Simply put, Putin’s administration has prioritized military production over all else in the economy, at substantial cost,” they wrote. “While the defense industry expands, Russian consumers are increasingly burdened with debt, potentially setting the stage for a looming crisis. The excessive focus on military spending is crowding out productive investments in other sectors of the economy, stifling long-term growth prospects and innovation.”

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ETFs are set to hit record inflows, but this wild card could change it

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ETF Edge, September 4, 2024

Exchange-traded fund inflows have already topped monthly records in 2024, and managers think inflows could see an impact from the money market fund boom before year-end.

“With that $6 trillion plus parked in money market funds, I do think that is really the biggest wild card for the remainder of the year,” Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “Whether it be flows into REIT ETFs or just the broader ETF market, that’s going to be a real potential catalyst here to watch.”

Total assets in money market funds set a new high of $6.24 trillion this past week, according to the Investment Company Institute. Assets have hit peak levels this year as investors wait for a Federal Reserve rate cut.

“If that yield comes down, the return on money market funds should come down as well,” said State Street Global Advisors’ Matt Bartolini in the same interview. “So as rates fall, we should expect to see some of that capital that has been on the sidelines in cash when cash was sort of cool again, start to go back into the marketplace.”

Bartolini, the firm’s head of SPDR Americas Research, sees that money moving into stocks, other higher-yielding areas of the fixed income marketplace and parts of the ETF market.

“I think one of the areas that I think is probably going to pick up a little bit more is around gold ETFs,” Bartolini added. “They’ve had about 2.2 billion of inflows the last three months, really strong close last year. So I think the future is still bright for the overall industry.”

Meanwhile, Geraci expects large, megacap ETFs to benefit. He also thinks the transition could be promising for ETF inflow levels as they approach 2021 records of $909 billion.

“Assuming stocks don’t experience a massive pullback, I think investors will continue to allocate here, and ETF inflows can break that record,” he said.

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