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Ray Kurzweil Still Says He Will Merge With A.I.

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Sitting near a window inside Boston’s Four Seasons Hotel, overlooking a duck pond in the city’s Public Garden, Ray Kurzweil held up a sheet of paper showing the steady growth in the amount of raw computer power that a dollar could buy over the last 85 years.

A neon-green line rose steadily across the page, climbing like fireworks in the night sky.

That diagonal line, he said, showed why humanity was just 20 years away from the Singularity, a long hypothesized moment when people will merge with artificial intelligence and augment themselves with millions of times more computational power than their biological brains now provide.

“If you create something that is thousands of times — or millions of times — more powerful than the brain, we can’t anticipate what it is going to do,” he said, wearing multicolored suspenders and a Mickey Mouse watch he bought at Disney World in the early 1980s.

Mr. Kurzweil, a renowned inventor and futurist who built a career on predictions that defy conventional wisdom, made the same claim in his 2005 book, “The Singularity Is Near.” After the arrival of A.I. technologies like ChatGPT and recent efforts to implant computer chips inside people’s heads, he believes the time is right to restate his claim. Last week, he published a sequel: “The Singularity Is Nearer.”

Now that Mr. Kurzweil is 76 years old and is moving a lot slower than he used to, his predictions carry an added edge. He has long said he plans to experience the Singularity, merge with A.I. and, in this way, live indefinitely. But if the Singularity arrives in 2045, as he claims it will, there is no guarantee he will be alive to see it.

“Even a healthy 20-year-old could die tomorrow,” he said.

But his prediction is not quite as outlandish as it seemed in 2005. The success of the chatbot ChatGPT and similar technologies has encouraged many prominent computer scientists, Silicon Valley executives and venture capitalists to make extravagant predictions about the future of A.I. and how it will alter the course of humanity.

Tech giants and other deep-pocketed investors are pumping billions into A.I. development, and the technologies are growing more powerful every few months.

Many skeptics warn that extravagant predictions about artificial intelligence may crumble as the industry struggles with the limits of the raw materials needed to build A.I., including electrical power, digital data, mathematics and computing capacity. Techno-optimism can also feel myopic — and entitled — in the face of the world’s many problems.

“When people say that A.I. will solve every problem, they are not actually looking at what the causes of those problems are,” said Shazeda Ahmed, a researcher at the University of California, Los Angeles, who explores claims about the future of A.I.

The big leap, of course, is imagining how human consciousness would merge with a machine, and people like Mr. Kurzweil struggle to explain how exactly this would happen.

Born in New York City, Mr. Kurzweil began programming computers as a teenager, when computers were room-size machines. In 1965, as a 17-year-old, he appeared on the CBS television show “I’ve Got a Secret,” performing a piano piece composed by a computer that he designed.

While still a student at Martin Van Buren High School in Queens, he exchanged letters with Marvin Minsky, one of the computer scientists who founded the field of artificial intelligence at a conference in the mid-1950s. He soon enrolled at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to study under Dr. Minsky, who had become the face of this new academic pursuit — a mix of computer science, neuroscience, psychology and an almost religious belief that thinking machines were possible.

When the term artificial intelligence was first presented to the public during a 1956 conference at Dartmouth College, Dr. Minsky and the other computer scientists gathered there did not think it would take long to build machines that could match the power of the human brain. Some argued that a computer would beat the world chess champion and discover its own mathematical theorem within a decade.

They were a bit too optimistic. A computer would not beat the world chess champion until the late 1990s. And the world is still waiting for a machine to discover its own mathematical theorem.

After Mr. Kurzweil built a series of companies that developed everything from speech recognition technologies to music synthesizers, President Bill Clinton awarded him the National Medal of Technology and Innovation, the country’s highest honor for achievement in tech innovation. His profile continued to rise as he wrote a series of books that predicted the future.

Around the turn of the century, Mr. Kurzweil predicted that A.I. would match human intelligence before the end of the 2020s and that the Singularity would follow 15 years later. He repeated these predictions when the world’s leading A.I. researchers gathered in Boston in 2006 to celebrate the field’s 50th anniversary.

“There were polite snickers,” said Subbarao Kambhampati, an A.I. researcher and Arizona State University professor.

A.I. began to rapidly improve in the early 2010s as a group of researchers at the University of Toronto explored a technology called a neural network. This mathematical system could learn skills by analyzing vast amounts of data. By analyzing thousands of cat photos, it could learn to identify a cat.

It was an old idea dismissed by the likes of Dr. Minsky decades before. But it started to work in eye-opening ways, thanks to the enormous amounts of data the world had uploaded onto the internet — and the arrival of the raw computing power needed to analyze all that data.

The result, in 2022, was ChatGPT. It had been driven by that exponential growth in computing power.

Geoffrey Hinton, the University of Toronto professor who helped develop neural network technology and may be more responsible for its success than any other researcher, once dismissed Mr. Kurzweil’s prediction that machines would exceed human intelligence before the end of this decade. Now, he believes it was insightful.

“His prediction no longer looks so silly. Things are happening much faster than I expected,” said Dr. Hinton, who until recently worked at Google, where Mr. Kurzweil has led a research group since 2012.

Dr. Hinton is among the A.I. researchers who believe that the technologies driving chatbots like ChatGPT could become dangerous — perhaps even destroy humanity. But Mr. Kurzweil is more optimistic.

He has long predicted that advances in A.I. and nanotechnology, which could alter the microscopic mechanisms that control the way our bodies behave and the diseases that afflict them, will push back against the inevitability of death. Soon, he said, these technologies will extend lives at a faster rate than people age, eventually reaching an “escape velocity” that allows people to extend their lives indefinitely.

“By the early 2030s, we won’t die because of aging,” he said.

If he can reach this moment, Mr. Kurzweil explained, he can probably reach the Singularity.

But the trends that anchor Mr. Kurzweil’s predictions — simple line graphs showing the growth of computer power and other technologies over long periods of time — do not always keep going the way people expect them to, said Sayash Kapoor, a Princeton University researcher and co-author of the influential online newsletter “A.I. Snake Oil” and a book of the same name.

When a New York Times reporter asked Mr. Kurzweil if he was predicting immortality for himself back in 2013, he replied: “The problem is I can’t get on the phone with you in the future and say, ‘Well, I’ve done it, I have lived forever,’ because it’s never forever.” In other words, he could never be proved right.

But he could be proved wrong. Sitting near the window in Boston, Mr. Kurzweil acknowledged that death comes in many forms. And he knows that his margin of error is shrinking.

He recalled a conversation with his aunt, a psychotherapist, when she was 98 years old. He explained his theory of life longevity escape velocity — that people will eventually reach a point where they can live indefinitely. She replied: “Can you please hurry up with that?” Two weeks later, she died.

Though Dr. Hinton is impressed with Mr. Kurzweil’s prediction that machines will become smarter than humans by the end of the decade, he is less taken with the idea that the inventor and futurist will live forever.

“I think a world run by 200-year-old white men would be an appalling place,” Dr. Hinton said.

Audio produced by Patricia Sulbarán.



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How to watch Ariane 6 rocket’s maiden launch on Tuesday

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The European Space Agency (ESA) is about to conduct the maiden launch of its new Ariane 6 rocket. The new rocket builds on five decades of Ariane launches, and gives Europe a new spaceflight system for launching any type of satellite around Earth, to the moon, and beyond.

In the words of its operator, Arianespace, the new rocket will provide “new levels of efficiency and flexibility to meet customers’ evolving launch services needs across a full range of commercial and institutional missions.”

Arianespace is building two versions of the 63-meter-tall Ariane 6. Ariane 62 will fly with two strap-on boosters, while the more powerful Ariane 64 will fly with four.

Commenting on the upcoming launch, ESA said: “This is a big moment for Europe, as the rocket will ensure our guaranteed, autonomous access to space — and all of the science, Earth observation, technology development, and commercial possibilities that it entails. With many features brand new to Ariane 6, we’ll be able to carry more and take it further, while sustainably disposing of the launcher’s upper stage to prevent it becoming space debris.”

How to watch

Ariane 6 is scheduled to launch from Europe’s Spaceport in French Guiana on Tuesday, 9 July, with a four-hour launch window opening from 2 p.m. ET.

The launch will be streamed live on ESAWebTV and the broadcast will begin half an hour before liftoff. You can also watch it via ESA’s YouTube channel, which we’ve embedded at the top of this page.

What to expect

Ariane 6’s maiden flight will comprise three phases, each of which will demonstrate the various abilities of Europe’s newest heavy-lift rocket.

Phase one will include the launch and early stage of the flight, as well as the separation of the rocket’s main stage from the upper stage. It also involves the first boost of the upper stage’s Vinci engine to take it into an elliptical orbit above Earth.

The second phase will put Ariane 6’s newest feature to the test — reignition of the upper stage to change Ariane 6’s orbit from elliptical to a circular orbit. It will then deploy three satellites — OOV-Cube, Curium One and Robusta-3A — and activate of two onboard experiments, YPSat and Peregrinus.

A few seconds later, the second batch of satellites will deploy — 3Cat-4, ISTSat, and GRBBeta. The last two experiments will also be activated, SIDLOC and Parisat. A third separation command will then deploy CURIE and replicator.

The final phase will push the rocket’s cryogenic upper stage to its limit to validate its ability to perform in microgravity conditions. Two reentry capsules will also separate from the upper stage and descend to Earth by surviving a fiery re-entry through the atmosphere.

With the mission complete, the upper stage will burn up in Earth’s atmosphere to avoid becoming another piece of hazardous space junk.








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As the E.V. Revolution Slows, Ferrari Enters the Race

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Gliding on robotic haulers, a line of Ferrari frames maneuvers through a gleaming new factory in Northern Italy. At each station, engineers in cherry red uniforms add a component — an engine block, a dashboard, a steering wheel — as they transform the bodies into hybrid vehicles. Up next: fully electric.

A lot is riding on Ferrari’s 200-million-euro “e-building,” which went into operation last month and is nearly twice the size of Rome’s Colosseum. The factory is intended to bring the 77-year-old sports-car maker, known for the sonorous vroom of its gas engines, into the age of electrification.

But the effort comes at a precarious time for the auto industry. The transition to electric vehicles, which was supposed to quickly usher in an era of climate-friendly transport, has instead been squeezed by costly investments and slowing global demand.

Other luxury carmakers have struggled to go electric. Mercedes-Benz and Lamborghini have reduced their ambitions. Tesla reported declining second-quarter sales on Tuesday, and Ford Motor said in April that it would shift production to more hybrids as E.V. losses piled up. A growing trade war between China and the West also threatens to stifle growth.

Despite the challenges, Ferrari sees an opportunity in the industry’s inevitable march toward electrification to reach a new consumer: the wealthy environmentalist. It intends to unveil its first fully electric model in the fourth quarter of next year. As part of its strategy, the carmaker has enlisted LoveFrom — the agency founded by Jony Ive, Apple’s former design chief, and the industrial designer Marc Newson — to hone the car’s appearance.

There is plenty of mystery shrouding the yet-to-be-named car, including its battery life and what it will sound like. The company has not disclosed its look, production run or price tag. But it could be one of the most expensive electric vehicles on the market, analyst say, surpassing Porsche’s $286,000 Taycan Turbo GT.

Ferrari’s foray into electric will be notable for other reasons. Regulators may be pushing electric vehicles, but there is lingering skepticism in the marketplace. Winning over fans of combustion engines will not be easy — even for Ferrari. And the industry is desperate for an automaker, any automaker, to prove that electric vehicles can drive big profits.

“It’s worth watching whether a Ferrari E.V. can maintain the kind of price premium you’d associate with a Ferrari,” said Martino de Ambroggi, an automotive analyst at Equita, an investment bank in Milan. “Often, a Ferrari purchase is also viewed as a kind of investment. Only after a few years will we see if that investment in an electric Ferrari holds up.”

Benedetto Vigna, Ferrari’s chief executive, is doing his best to keep the market in anticipation. In an interview last month in the new plant, he said the company would commence full-scale electric vehicle production by early 2026. By 2030, electric and hybrid cars will make up as much as 80 percent of Ferrari’s annual output as the company seeks to meet stringent European Union emissions mandates.

In the meantime, the e-building will roll out two models: the SF90 Stradale, a plug-in hybrid, and the combustion engine Purosangue.

Ferrari does not need an electric vehicle to pad its bottom line. Under Mr. Vigna, a former executive at the chip maker STMicroelectronics who took the helm nearly three years ago, the company has been on a tear. The stock is one of the best performers in Europe this year, giving it a roughly $75 billion market valuation, higher than that of Ford or General Motors. Profits are soaring alongside prices at Ferrari, which makes some of the most expensive cars on the planet. There’s a three-year waiting list for some models.

Ferrari’s success over the years on the Formula 1 track has also led to a lucrative corporate sponsorship and merchandise business that has transformed it into a luxury brand with a sporty flair. Ferrari’s prancing horse logo can be found on high-end apparel like a €790 cashmere sweater.

Mr. Vigna sees the electric vehicle as part of the company’s growth strategy, despite the industry’s slowdown. “There are some potential clients, I have them clearly in mind, who will never become part of the family unless there is an electric car,” he said.

But challenges loom. Enthusiasts who had gathered outside the factory gates last month wondered: Will it look, handle and sound like the classic Ferrari growler, or have the understated whine of most electric vehicles?

“When you think of a Ferrari, it still has that kind of engine sensation, and you also think of the roar,” Mr. de Ambroggi said. “I don’t know how Ferrari resolves this.”

Mr. Vigna fields that question often, especially from longtime customers, or Ferraristi. They seem to be channeling the deceased founder, Enzo Ferrari, who once broke down in the simplest terms how he built some of the fastest cars on the planet: “I build motors and attach them to wheels.”

Mr. Vigna’s E.V. pitch has a different ring. “The electric engine will not be silent,” he said. “There are ways to make sure that the emotion comes through from driving an electric Ferrari that is the same as when you drive a hybrid or when you drive a thermal Ferrari.”

Battery life is another puzzle piece. Because Ferraris often sell for a higher price on the secondary market, the concern about battery degradation, and its impact on the long-term value of the car, may be felt more acutely by the Ferraristi.

“The E.V. transition raises a whole lot of new issues for them in terms of how you maintain the vehicle,” said Stephen Reitman, an auto analyst at Bernstein.

Ferrari’s longtime partner, SK On, a South Korean battery maker, will supply the components for the E.V. batteries, which Ferrari will assemble in the e-building, where it will also make the car’s electric motors and axles.

And then there is the matter of price. Last month, Reuters reported that the car would cost at least €500,000 ($540,000). Mr. Vigna pushed back on the speculation, saying it is too early to talk price.

Ferrari still follows its founder’s principle for producing a limited number of extremely expensive cars. Ferrari made fewer than 14,000 last year; even with the e-building, production is not expected to increase much at the start.

The limited numbers may explain why fans make the pilgrimage to Maranello hoping to catch a glimpse of a Ferrari, either on the company’s Formula 1 test track or near its red brick factory.

Knowing demand is high, Mr. Vigna has increased the base price of most models more than 25 percent.

“Ferrari consistently sells less than the market demands, leading to a multiyear order book,” said Mr. Reitman, the Bernstein analyst. With a profit margin of nearly 30 percent, Ferrari’s business more resembles that of a luxury brand like Hermes or Rolex, analysts say.

Mr. Vigna is already thinking about how to market the new electric car. The target customer probably will not be buying the car for purely practical or even planet-saving reasons, he said, adding: “The emotional part of the brain is driving the purchase.”



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Students Target Teachers in Group TikTok Attack, Shaking Their School

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In February, Patrice Motz, a veteran Spanish teacher at Great Valley Middle School in Malvern, Pa., was warned by another teacher that trouble was brewing.

Some eighth graders at her public school had set up fake TikTok accounts impersonating teachers. Ms. Motz, who had never used TikTok, created an account.

She found a fake profile for @patrice.motz, which had posted a real photo of her at the beach with her husband and their young children. “Do you like to touch kids?” a text in Spanish over the family vacation photo asked. “Answer: Sí.”

In the days that followed, some 20 educators — about one quarter of the school’s faculty — discovered they were victims of fake teacher accounts rife with pedophilia innuendo, racist memes, homophobia and made-up sexual hookups among teachers. Hundreds of students soon viewed, followed or commented on the fraudulent accounts.

In the aftermath, the school district briefly suspended several students, teachers said. The principal during one lunch period chastised the eighth-grade class for its behavior.

The biggest fallout has been for teachers like Ms. Motz, who said she felt “kicked in the stomach” that students would so casually savage teachers’ families. The online harassment has left some teachers worried that social media platforms are helping to stunt the growth of empathy in students. Some teachers are now hesitant to call out pupils who act up in class. Others said it had been challenging to keep teaching.

“It was so deflating,” said Ms. Motz, who has taught at the school, in a wealthy Philadelphia suburb, for 14 years. “I can’t believe I still get up and do this every day.”

The Great Valley incident is the first known group TikTok attack of its kind by middle schoolers on their teachers in the United States. It’s a significant escalation in how middle and high school students impersonate, troll and harass educators on social media. Before this year, students largely impersonated one teacher or principal at a time.

The middle schoolers’ attack also reflects broader concerns in schools about how students’ use, and abuse, of popular online tools is intruding on the classroom. Some states and districts have recently restricted or banned student cellphone use in schools, in part to limit peer harassment and cyberbullying on Instagram, Snap, TikTok and other apps.

Now social media has helped normalize anonymous aggressive posts and memes, leading some children to weaponize them against adults.

“We didn’t have to deal with teacher-targeting at this scale before,” said Becky Pringle, president of the National Education Association, the largest U.S. teachers’ union. “It’s not only demoralizing. It could push educators to question, ‘Why would I continue in this profession if students are doing this?’”

In a statement, the Great Valley School District said it had taken steps to address “22 fictitious TikTok accounts” impersonating teachers at the middle school. It described the incident as “a gross misuse of social media that profoundly impacted our staff.”

Last month, two female students at the school publicly posted an “apology” video on a TikTok account using the name of a seventh-grade teacher as a handle. The pair, who did not disclose their names, described the impostor videos as a joke and said teachers had blown the situation out of proportion.

“We never meant for it to get this far, obviously,” one of the students said in the video. “I never wanted to get suspended.”

“Move on. Learn to joke,” the other student said about a teacher. “I am 13 years old,” she added, using an expletive for emphasis, “and you’re like 40 going on 50.”

A TikTok account displaying the name of a Great Valley Middle School teacher posted a video in late June about the student suspensions.Credit…via TikTok

In an email to The New York Times, one of the students said that the fake teacher accounts were intended as obvious jokes, but that some students had taken the impersonations too far.

A TikTok spokeswoman said the platform’s guidelines prohibit misleading behavior, including accounts that pose as real people without disclosing that they are parodies or fan accounts. TikTok said a U.S.-based security team validated ID information — such as driver’s licenses — in impersonation cases and then deleted the data.

Great Valley Middle School, known locally as a close-knit community, serves about 1,100 students in a modern brick complex surrounded by a sea of bright green sports fields.

The impostor TikToks disrupted the school’s equilibrium, according to interviews with seven Great Valley teachers, four of whom requested anonymity for privacy reasons. Some teachers already used Instagram or Facebook but not TikTok.

The morning after Ms. Motz, the Spanish teacher, discovered her impersonator, the disparaging TikToks were already an open secret among students.

“There was this undercurrent conversation throughout the hallway,” said Shawn Whitelock, a longtime social studies teacher. “I noticed a group of students holding a cellphone up in front of a teacher and saying, ‘TikTok.’”

Students took images from the school’s website, copied family photos that teachers had posted in their classrooms and found others online. They made memes by cropping, cutting and pasting photos, then superimposing text.

The low-tech “cheapfake” images differ from recent incidents in schools where students used artificial intelligence apps to generate real-looking, digitally altered images known as “deepfakes.”

While some of the Great Valley teacher impostor posts seemed jokey and benign — like “Memorize your states, students!” — other posts were sexualized. One fake teacher account posted a collaged photo with the heads of two male teachers pasted onto a man and woman partially naked in bed.

Fake teacher accounts also followed and hit on other fake teachers.

“It very much became a distraction,” Bettina Scibilia, an eighth-grade English teacher who has worked at the school for 19 years, said of the TikToks.

Students also targeted Mr. Whitelock, who was the faculty adviser for the school’s student council for years.

A fake @shawn.whitelock account posted a photo of Mr. Whitelock standing in a church during his wedding, with his wife mostly cropped out. The caption named a member of the school’s student council, implying the teacher had wed him instead. “I’m gonna touch you,” the impostor later commented.

I spent 27 years building a reputation as a teacher who is dedicated to the profession of teaching,” Mr. Whitelock said in an interview. “An impersonator assassinated my character — and slandered me and my family in the process.”

Mrs. Scibilia said a student had already posted a graphic death threat against her on TikTok earlier in the school year, which she reported to the police. The teacher impersonations increased her concern.

“Many of my students spend hours and hours and hours on TikTok, and I think it’s just desensitized them to the fact that we’re real people,” she said. “They didn’t feel what a violation this was to create these accounts and impersonate us and mock our children and mock what we love.”

A few days after learning of the videos, Edward Souders, the principal of Great Valley Middle School, emailed the parents of eighth graders, describing the impostor accounts as portraying “our teachers in a disrespectful manner.”

In early March, the principal of Great Valley Middle School, Edward Souders, sent eighth-grade parents an email about the impostor accounts on TikTok.

The school also held an eighth-grade assembly on responsible technology use.

But the school district said it had limited options to respond. Courts generally protect students’ rights to off-campus free speech, including parodying or disparaging educators online — unless the students’ posts threaten others or disrupt school.

“While we wish we could do more to hold students accountable, we are legally limited in what action we can take when students communicate off campus during nonschool hours on personal devices,” Daniel Goffredo, the district’s superintendent, said in a statement.

The district said it couldn’t comment on any disciplinary actions, to protect student privacy.

In mid-March, Nikki Salvatico, president of the Great Valley Education Association, a teachers’ union, warned the school board that the TikToks were disrupting the school’s “safe educational environment.”

“We need the message that this type of behavior is unacceptable,” Ms. Salvatico said at a school board meeting on March 18.

The next day, Dr. Souders sent another email to parents. Some posts contained “offensive content,” he wrote, adding: “I am optimistic that by addressing it together, we can prevent it from happening again.”

In mid-March, Dr. Souders, the principal, sent a second email to parents, this time noting that some of the TikToks contained “offensive content.”

While a few accounts disappeared — including those using the names of Ms. Motz, Mr. Whitelock and Mrs. Scibilia — others popped up. In May, a second TikTok account impersonating Mrs. Scibilia posted several new videos mocking her.

She and other Great Valley educators said they had reported the impostor accounts to TikTok, but had not heard back. But several teachers, who felt the videos had violated their privacy, said they did not provide TikTok with a personal ID to verify their identities.

On Wednesday, TikTok removed the account impersonating Mrs. Scibilia and three other fake Great Valley teacher accounts flagged by a reporter.

Mrs. Scibilia and other teachers are still processing the incident. Some teachers have stopped posing for and posting photographs, lest students misuse the images. Experts said this type of abuse could harm teachers’ mental health and reputations.

“That would be traumatizing to anyone,” said Susan D. McMahon, a psychology professor at DePaul University in Chicago and chair of the American Psychological Association’s Task Force on Violence Against Educators. She added that verbal student aggression against teachers was increasing.

Now teachers like Mrs. Scibilia and Ms. Motz are pushing schools to educate students on how to use tech responsibly — and bolster policies to better protect teachers.

Great Valley students on TikTok warned their schoolmates that teachers had learned of the impostor accounts.Credit…via TikTok

In the Great Valley students’ “apology” on TikTok last month, the two girls said they planned to post new videos. This time, they said, they would make the posts private so teachers couldn’t find them.

“We’re back, and we’ll be posting again,” one said. “And we are going to private all the videos at the beginning of next school year,” she added, “’cause then they can’t do anything.”

On Friday, after a Times reporter asked the school district to notify parents about this article, the students deleted the “apology” video and removed the teacher’s handle from their account. They also added a disclaimer: “Guys, we’re not acting as our teachers anymore that’s in the past !!”





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