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Junk bonds are now in high demand as Wall Street bets on another Trump presidency

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The credit world’s version of the “Trump trade” is beginning to take shape: Buy American high-yield bonds and steer clear of anything inflation-sensitive.

Corporate bond investors around the world have already started positioning to benefit from a potential Donald Trump election victory after an assassination attempt and the Republican National Convention boosted his position in polls. Spreads on US high-yield bonds strengthened compared with their euro counterparts in the past week and junk funds globally saw a surge in inflows.

“US high yield is the trade,” said Al Cattermole, a portfolio manager at Mirabaud Asset Management. “It is more domestic-focused and exposed to US economic activity.”

In a late June interview with Bloomberg Businessweek, Trump said he wants to bring the corporate tax rate down to as low as 15%. That lower expense could improve the creditworthiness of weaker firms. US companies could also benefit from protectionist policies that will see high tariffs slapped on imports if the Republican nominee is victorious.

US junk is attractive to money managers because, when financials are excluded, more than half of top junk-rated borrowers only have domestic revenues, according to a Bloomberg News analysis. That compares with just a fifth in the high-grade space. The data excludes companies that don’t publicly disclose the information. 

Domestic manufacturers could also benefit from tariffs and looser regulation.

“We have been adding US industrials that would benefit from a pro-business stance from a new government,” said Catherine Braganza, senior high yield portfolio manager at Insight Investment. “Companies that benefit from industrial manufacturing, in particular, those that deal with spare parts” are attractive, she said.

Yield Curve

Some fund managers are instead focusing on the shape of the yield curve, particularly as corporate bond spreads seem to have little room to fall further after nearing their tightest level in more than two years.

“We have reduced duration by having shorter-dated bonds, using futures and also using steepener trades,” said Gabriele Foa, a portfolio manager at Algebris Investments’ global credit team, referring to wagers that benefit when the gap between short- and long-dated yields widens.

Even though this spread has widened this year, it remains far below levels seen before major central banks started raising interest rates to tackle runaway inflation. At the moment, bondholders receive a measly 30 basis points in extra yield by holding seven- to 10-year global corporate bonds instead of shorter-term company notes, according to Bloomberg indexes, compared with 110 just before Trump left office in 2021.

his gives the curve further room to steepen, particularly if the former President’s policies — which are expected to be inflationary and lead to higher national debt — are matched by interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. 

To be sure, not all money managers are switching to a Trump portfolio just yet. It’s not yet a sure thing that he will win, and even if he does, it’s not completely clear what he will do in office.   

“It’s a bit too early to adjust your portfolio based on ‘what ifs’ when Donald Trump is in office,” said Joost de Graaf, co-head of the credit team at Van Lanschot Kempen Investment Management. “We still expect to see a bit of summer grind tighter in spreads.”

If Trump does win, markets sensitive to higher interest rates, inflation and tariffs are expected to be more unpredictable.

“Higher for longer is bad for emerging markets, and you’ll get weaker economic growth due to tariffs,” said Mirabaud’s Cattermole. “We would expect that European high yield underperforms in the next nine months.”

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Kamala Harris builds big cash lead over Donald Trump with $361mn fundraising haul

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Kamala Harris’s campaign has said it raised $361mn in August, surpassing Donald Trump’s haul of $130mn and extending the Democratic candidate’s financial advantage as the US presidential race heads into its final two months.

Harris’s campaign said it had $404mn in cash on hand at the end of last month against $295mn for Trump. Overall, the vice-president has raised more than $615mn since jumping into the race in July.

“Make no mistake: this election will be hard-fought and hard-won,” said Harris campaign manager Julie Chávez Rodriguez. “But with the undeniable, organic support we are seeing, we are making sure we are doing everything possible to mobilise our coalition to defeat Donald Trump once and for all.”

Jaime Harrison, the Democratic party’s national committee chair, said August was “the best grassroots fundraising month in presidential history”.

Trump raised more money than President Joe Biden in the second quarter of the year as he united the Republican party, became the first ex-president convicted of a crime through his New York “hush money” trial and debated the president for the first time in the 2024 cycle.

But Democrats have been energised since Harris replaced Biden following his withdrawal from the race on July 21.

Harris now enters the autumn with a significant advertising advantage. Overall, pro-Harris political groups have booked about $380mn in ads from September to election day on November 5, compared with $195mn for Trump, according to AdImpact.

The Trump campaign has also boasted about its ability to raise funds from small-dollar donors. But it has benefited from one of the biggest individual donors this cycle — Tim Mellon, a reclusive scion of the billionaire American banking dynasty. Mellon has given $125mn to Make America Great Again, a pro-Trump super-political action committee, according to the latest federal filings.

“With Republicans united and a growing number of independents and disaffected Democrats crossing partisan lines, the Trump-Vance campaign has momentum for the final stretch of the race,” said Trump campaign adviser Brian Hughes, referring to Ohio senator and vice-presidential nominee JD Vance.

“These fundraising numbers from August are a reflection of that movement and will propel President Trump’s America First movement back to the White House so we can undo the terrible failures of Harris and Biden.”

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Greece won’t be turning into Switzerland or Sweden any time soon as economy continues to suffer after years of recession

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Greek barista Kyriakos Giannichronis has seen the headlines about his country’s newly booming economy after years of recession — but he does not feel the wealth.

The Athens resident only has about 150 euros ($170) to spare at the end of the month, and that is despite getting a good deal on rent and making a little more than minimum wage.

Many Greeks face similar challenges — which is why Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis is widely expected to announce new benefits in a keynote speech this weekend.

“I am responsible enough for what I make, but… everything is going up and up. And the amount we get paid is around the same each year,” he said.

“Things look like they’re getting better, but it doesn’t seem like it,” the 27-year-old told AFP.

Living standards in Greece remain low despite the Mediterranean country’s substantial rebound which has the economy growing at two percent — a higher rate than in much of Europe.

The reason for the two sides of the coin is that Greece has significant ground to make up after a near-decade economic crisis and pandemic recession.

The economy “is growing and all the right measures are improving, but starting from a very low basis,” economist Nikos Vettas told AFP.

“Even if you have an increase now, this improvement is not enough to catch up,” said Vettas, who heads the Greek foundation for economic and industrial research IOBE think-tank.

To further complicate matters, housing and food prices had gone up because of inflation, which only now is on its way down.

“The cost of living actually neutralised part of the increase in the wages that we had, and as a result the real incomes of many households are suffering,” Vettas said.

Mitsotakis’ conservative government — which is dipping in the polls — has blamed the high cost of living on soaring energy prices that followed the war in Ukraine.

His New Democracy party is currently polling at around 22 percent, a far cry from the 40.56 percent it won in national elections last year.

Mitsotakis is expected to announce a new round of benefits in the prime minister’s annual economy speech in Thessaloniki this weekend.

‘Life is so expensive’

Last year, the country of just over 10 million people had the second lowest GDP per capita in purchasing power within the European Union.

Only Bulgaria fared worst, according to EU data agency Eurostat.

It also found that average annual income in Greece was half the European average in 2023.

And the Greek minimum wage is 830 euros, some 900 euros below that of France.

“So how are you supposed to live, if you have to rent a house with 500 euros?” asked Athens hairdresser Christina Massiou.

“Life is so expensive that you can’t set aside money for emergencies,” the 24-year-old added.

She and her friend Alexandra Siouti, who works at a PR agency, spoke from under a palm tree at a beach near Athens.

They had gone to relax and “escape from reality”, Massiou said.

“I have seen the older generations say that things are getting better. For them maybe,” Siouti, also 24, told AFP.

“But younger people don’t have many opportunities here to start their life and invest in their dreams.”

No Switzerland or Sweden

Last month, the economy ministry said household net disposable income had risen in recent years, putting Greece in 16th place in the European Union.

The data confirmed the “significant progress our country has achieved in the last five years”, the ministry said in a statement.

But the ministry acknowledged that it was not cause for celebration or a reason to “underestimate the real difficulties that many of our fellow citizens face”.

“It is obvious that Greece has not turned into Switzerland or Sweden,” it said.

Vettas, the economist, noted that some sectors have fared better than others.

“We have witnessed in the last three or four years a sharp increase in the salaries of professions where they have some speciality, some expertise,” he said.

“Either at the upper end or the lower end,” Vettas added, giving the examples of computer scientists and construction workers.

But for those employed in a sector like hospitality — a big industry in Greece — “it’s not easy to see how you’re going to improve their position”.

Giannichronis, the barista, said he was trying to remain zen about the economic situation, despite having to think about money all the time.

“I’m not furious because it wouldn’t do me any good. Things are the way they are. We can’t change much,” he said.

What he can control is how to budget his own expenses and help his friends better manage theirs, he added.

“But if I was angry about it too, then I would start to lose myself and go crazy on the streets shouting… and I don’t want that.”

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Salesforce to acquire Own for $1.9 billion in cash

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Marc Benioff, CEO of Salesforce.com, speaks during a keynote at the Dreamforce 2023 conference in San Francisco on Sept. 12, 2023.

Marlena Sloss | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Salesforce announced Thursday that it would pay $1.9 billion in cash for Own Co., a startup specializing in tools for backing up data in cloud-based applications. Salesforce intends to close the deal in the quarter ending in January 2025 if regulators give it their blessing, according to a statement.

The startup, formerly known as OwnBackup, was valued at $3.35 billion in a 2021 funding round. Salesforce Ventures, the cloud software company’s venture arm, invested in that round and earlier ones.

The proposed deal would mark the return of sizable deals for Salesforce, less than two years after co-founder and CEO Marc Benioff said the board was eliminating a committee on mergers and acquisitions.

Benioff’s pronouncement came after activist investors bought stakes in Salesforce and raised questions about profitability after the company had splurged on expensive assets, including MuleSoft and Slack, without delivering major growth in return.

The decline in value for Own reflects a more sluggish backdrop for software companies.

In late 2021, investors became less interested in cloud software, which had seen a surge in adoption in 2020 thanks to remote-work policies instituted after Covid. Central banks raised rates to ward off inflation, prompting money-losing cloud companies to focus more on profitability. Enterprises aiming to slim down information-technology budgets consolidated their purchases, burdening single-product companies, including startups and publicly traded companies.

Anaplan, Avalara, Coupa, Everbridge, Qualtrics, Sumo Logic and Zendesk all went private.

Own, which had specialized in helping Salesforce clients, sought to diversify. In its 2021 funding announcement, it touted its intent to work with Microsoft’s Dynamics enterprise software that competes with Salesforce’s core applications. Support for ServiceNow followed.

Salesforce in recent weeks has also revealed plans to buy smaller startups PredictSpring and Tenyx.

Salesforce said the Own acquisition wouldn’t impact Salesforce’s shareholder return initiatives, and said the deal would be accretive to free cash flow starting in the second year after the deal closes.

In April, data-management software maker Informatica said it was not in talks to be acquired after media outlets reported Salesforce was interested in buying the company for around $10 billion.

“We’re going to be looking at products organically, but, yes, we will continue to look at products inorganically,” Benioff told analysts on Salesforce’s May earnings call. “But as we’ve committed to you, if we’re looking at a large-scale acquisition, we’re going to make sure that it is not dilutive to our customers, that it’s accretive, that it has the right metrics.”

WATCH: Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff goes one-on-one with Jim Cramer

Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff goes one-on-one with Jim Cramer



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