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The big problem facing whoever wins the election

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Getty Images  Former Honda site in Swindon in the middle of deconstructionGetty Images

The former Honda site in Swindon will become a warehousing and logistics facility

Amid a vast expanse of rubble, dust and noise, a green crane yanks away at a corrugated roof like a frustrated dentist attempting to extract a particularly stubborn wisdom tooth.

Swindon’s Honda factory – once one of the world’s most advanced car factories – is being demolished, three decades after it opened.

This used to be one of the fastest-growing towns in Europe. It was one of the jewels in the crown of investments attracted to the UK by Margaret Thatcher’s brand of 1980s enterprise. Swindon voted for her, John Major, Tony Blair, David Cameron, Theresa May and Boris Johnson. It was also one of the first towns to declare for Brexit, by 55%.

But last year, its council changed hands to Labour. The council has had to continue to accelerate cuts to local services, passing a budget with record cuts in order to stave off bankruptcy.

Inflation, rising care expenses, and central government grant squeezes meant cuts to libraries, the Dial-a-Ride community transport service and dimmed street lights. There has been an almost 5% rise in council tax. The council leader has warned any further cuts will affect frontline services.

What is happening in Swindon is a visible consequence of sluggish long-term economic growth. Government spending cuts, low private investment, deindustrialisation and shrinking disposable income have left scars even on what was one of the UK’s famous boom towns.

A couple of women walk down a Swindon street, with a man in white hoody and using a crutch on the right in front of a boarded up shopa boarded up shop in the foreground

A view of shuttered shops on a Swindon street

The Honda site is set to become a warehousing and logistics facility. In another world, it would have been replaced by another major global manufacturer. Tesla, for example, was invited. Whereas five years ago the promise was to level up left-behind Northern towns, places like Swindon feel levelled down.

The question about growth arising in this town is vital to whoever wins Thursday’s election.

Elsewhere in the world, sites like this are being repurposed for electric car manufacturing. The Americans are pouring public money into their factories to try to compete with China, who will soon be confirmed as the world’s biggest car exporter. Emerging economies from Indonesia to Vietnam to Turkey are also investing in and growing their car industries.

Indeed it was to Turkey that the entire Honda production line, including dozens of never-used industrial robots, was packed up and shipped off via the M4 and Bristol port last year.

Swindon is not just about Honda. It is part of the M4 corridor where there are plenty of jobs in the knowledge sectors, and in finance, for example at the headquarters of Nationwide. The overall unemployment rate is just 2.6%, but the number of people not in work and not looking for work is 18%.

Faisal Islam and Gary Huett riding bikes down a path

Faisal Islam joined Gary Huett, who contacted the BBC as part of the Your Voice, Your Vote election project, for a bike ride around Swindon

Marcus Kittridge, a former Honda engineer who now runs a cafe in the centre of town with his wife Tracey, accepts there are still “good employment prospects” but says many are at or “50p above” minimum wage, and says this has contributed to a decline in disposable income in the centre of town. “It’s like a Northern town that lost its industry in the 1970s,” he tells me.

They now shut the cafe at 14:00 every day because of the high price of energy. He expects to be passing on his rising costs in higher prices for the next year or two. They have also stopped selling smoothies, after a notable decline in the availability and quality of fresh fruit, which they blame on post-Brexit changes.

“We were told the quality of food was going to go up after Brexit, I can tell you now it has not. I’ve barely heard any politician mention it, but it definitely has had an impact on us,” Tracey says.

Might she have been a bit unlucky with her purchases of fresh produce? “If I’m unlucky, I’m getting unlucky every single day and I’m probably the unluckiest person on earth,” she says.

Their experience shows that some of the undercurrents of sluggish long-term growth – high energy prices, low disposable income, low investment, and new trade barriers can combine in unusual ways.

Marcus Kittridge sitting in his cafe wearing a black T-shirt that says Baristocats Cafe on it, with a glass of orange juice on the table in front of him

Former Honda worker turned cafe-owner Marcus Kittridge

Gary Huett, a retired graphic designer also from Swindon who got in touch as part of the BBC’s Your Voice, Your Vote project inviting you to tell us what matters, wanted to know why Swindon’s town centre looked like it was “rotting” and asked if anything could change.

“We’ve now got pound shops predominantly, and the thriving night scene, packed with the yuppy set in the 1980s and 1990s has gone and decayed.”

Gary Huett wearing a black baseball cap with sunglasses perched on top, a black T-shirt and a patterned scarf round his neck

Gary Huett wants to know why Swindon’s town centre looks like it is “rotting”

The Conservatives say green shoots are already here. The latest growth figures for January to March show the UK now has the fastest growing economy in the G7 group of advanced economies, after last year’s brief recession. Swindon’s jobs record remains strong. On the Honda site, new investment has come, and the jobs, albeit in warehousing rather than manufacturing, will return.

For Labour, Swindon – a bellwether town where residents have voted the same way as the eventual national winner for the last 40 years – shows that there are no quick fixes.

They are not competing with the US or European Union (EU) with big public investments in green energy. Council spending remains unprotected and subject to the same ongoing squeeze. A looser planning regime might help build more houses or expand the solar farms that dot the countryside around the town. But the job of transformation is very real. When asked what will happen if the economy does not grow, Labour has responded by saying some variation of “I’m not defeatist” or “we can do it”.

When I interviewed shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves in Swindon, I said that if she was relying on planning changes to transform growth prospects, they were going to have to be a revolutionary, almost Thatcher-style “Big Bang”. She told me: “It’s big reform we are offering… unless we grow the economy we’re going to be stuck in a doom loop of low growth, high taxes and poor public services.”

Labour’s hope is that there is a tsunami of private investment that has been held back from this country due to political and economic instability. That, the party says, can be unleashed by the tens of billions with a strong and stable pro-growth government.

When I met Chancellor Jeremy Hunt on the same day in Surrey, he said the party’s focus was now on bringing tax – which his party had hiked to seven-decade highs – down.

“We put up taxes because we were helping families in the cost-of-living crisis. We were very honest about that, it was the right thing to do.

“The difference is we don’t think it has to be permanent, and we are prepared to do the hard work to bring taxes down because we know a more competitive economy will see more growth and then more money for the NHS and schools.”

Whoever is in Number 11 after the election, Swindon shows the massive task facing them.

It shows what an economy not growing at normal rates looks like. A former boom town struggling. The challenge is not just to deliver robust economic growth here and well beyond, but to make sure this renewal is visible to the likes of Gary, Tracey and Marcus here in Swindon and to others like them across the country.

You can find a full list of candidates for the Swindon North constituency here, and those for the Swindon South constituency here.



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UK polls point to a big Labour win. The party fears voter complacency

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Labour leader Keir Starmer poses for photos as he visits the Vale Inn on June 27, 2024 in Macclesfield, United Kingdom. In the final week of campaigning, Labour outlined its plans to expand opportunities for young people. 

Cameron Smith | Getty Images News | Getty Images

LONDON — There’s been one main narrative since the U.K.’s Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called a general election back in May — that the opposing Labour Party would win the vote with a landslide.

While voter polls may have differed in scale and methodology, the results have pointed in one direction, showing that the center-left Labour Party has around a 20-point lead on the Conservatives. Labour is on track to win around 40% of the vote while roughly 20% of the support is projected to go to the Tories, according to a Sky News poll tracker.

Reform UK, led by arch-Brexiteer Nigel Farage, is seen with 16% of the vote, after eating away at Tory support, while the Liberal Democrats are seen gaining around 11% and the Greens with 6%. The Scottish National Party is predicted to win 2.9% of the vote.

Labour candidates and leader Keir Starmer have been keen to play down the level of support that the party enjoys, fearing voter complacency and the appearance of “having it in the bag” — a stance that could prompt voter apathy and a lower turnout of supporters at the polls, or a backlash from Conservative-inclined sections of the electorate.

“The Labour Party wants to be able to be convince voters that it’s absolutely central that they turn out and vote, because otherwise the Tories will win, and the Tories are desperate for people to think that they have still got a chance, and therefore it’s worth turning up,” Britain’s top polling expert John Curtice told CNBC.

Question marks have risen in the past over the accuracy of British voter polls, with previous projections over or underestimating support for various political parties. The errors have often come about because of inadequate sampling or of factors that are harder to control, such as voters being “shy” when polled on which party they intended to support.

Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer speaks ahead of the U.K.’s general election on July 4, 2024. 

Anthony Devlin | Getty Images News | Getty Images

This year, however, experts tend to agree that the polls show such a swing to Labour that, even if the scale of support were wrong, the overall result would be the same: a convincing win for the opposition party.

“My attitude is [that] a poll should be taken but not inhaled,” Curtice said wryly. “The point is, you shouldn’t be looking at them to provide you with pinpoint accuracy, they should give you a reasonable indication of the direction of travel.”

“It just so happens that because this is an election in which apparently one party is so far ahead, much as [it was] in 1997, the polls could be quite a bit out — but nobody will notice,” he noted, referencing the year when the Labour Party won a landslide against the Conservatives, ending the latter party’s then 18-year rule.

Labour ‘spin’?

The Labour Party itself is understandably keen to downplay the polls, with a spokesperson telling CNBC that the party doesn’t comment on projections, “as they vary and fluctuate.”

“Instead, we’re working hard to take our message of change to voters ahead of the only poll that matters, on 4 July,” the spokesperson stated.

On Monday, Keir Starmer said no vote should be taken for granted, asking his supporters to continue campaigning until polls closed on Thursday.

“The fight for change is for you, but change will only happen if you vote for it. That is the message we have to take to every doorstep these last few hours and days until 10 o’clock on Thursday night.”

“Nothing must be taken for granted, every vote has to be earned. The polls don’t predict the future, we have to get out there,” he told campaign supporters in Hitchin.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer during a visit to Hitchin, Hertfordshire, while on the General Election campaign trail. Picture date: Monday July 1, 2024. 

Stefan Rousseau – Pa Images | Pa Images | Getty Images

Labour’s former campaign and communications directors, Alastair Campbell, one of the chief strategists behind the rebranding of the party in the 1990s as ‘New Labour’ ahead of its monumental election win in 1997, told CNBC that he doubts current voter polls.

“I get really worried about about the way that these election debates are now unfolding, virtually everything in the debate at the moment is about these opinion polls,” he told CNBC two weeks ago.

“Apart from a few postal votes, nobody’s voted yet. And I just do not for one second believe that the Conservatives are going to get virtually wiped out, I just don’t believe it,” he said.

“I just think there’s something going very, very wrong with these polls, I could be completely wrong, and it’s true that Labour have been consistently ahead. But I just wish that, in our election periods, we would talk less about polls and more about what the parties are saying.”

'Something's going very wrong': Alastair Campbell casts doubt on UK opinion polls

Polling expert Matt Beech, director of the Centre for British Politics at the University of Hull, said Campbell’s position was designed to persuade Labour-inclined voters to cast their ballots.

“They want to make sure that they get as big a majority as possible. They’re all very much aware of [the lead-up to the election in] 1992 with the phenomenon of ‘shy Tories,’ when the polls said Labour would win and they didn’t …. [But] they’re not actually that genuinely worried about that. What they want to have a 1997-like landslide tsunami,” Beech told CNBC.

He added, “So if you keep banging on that drum [that the polls are not correct], you’re going to say to Labour-inclined voters, ‘please go out and vote.’ But it’s not that ‘we’re actually scared we’re not going to win, we are going to win comfortably. But we want a majority that enables us to push our agenda and we want this win to mean that we’re there for two terms.’



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Ad-supported Murdoch Netflix rival to launch in the UK

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Rupert Murdoch’s Fox Corporation is entering the UK’s highly competitive free, ad-supported video streaming market.

Tubi will compete with the likes of Netflix, Disney+, ITVX, Channel 4’s streaming platform as well as the BBC iPlayer.

The platform has been quickly gaining market share in the US where, according to Fox, it has almost 80 million monthly active users.

In the UK, Tubi says it will offer more than 20,000 films and TV series, including content from Disney, Lionsgate, NBCUniversal and Sony Pictures Entertainment.

The platform will also include a selection of British, Indian and Nigerian content.

UK viewers will be able to access content on the Tubi webpage and via a smartphone app.

Fox Corporation bought Tubi in 2020 for $440m (£348m) as the US media giant looked to attract younger audiences.

In recent years, streaming companies like Netflix, Amazon Prime Video and Disney+ have launched ad-supported services and raised subscription prices as they tried to boost revenues.

The moves came as they faced pressure to spend more money to grow their libraries of content as they try to attract more customers in an increasingly competitive market.

In March, Mr Murdoch’s TalkTV network announced that it would stop broadcasting as a terrestrial television channel and became a strictly online service.

The network launched in 2022 but struggled to attract viewers on its linear platform.

Mr Murdoch had hoped the network would shake up the broadcasting establishment by offering an opinion-led alternative to established outlets.

The media tycoon played a pivotal role in the development of the UK’s broadcasting industry by launching Sky in 1984.

Some commentators saw TalkTV as an attempt by Mr Murdoch to recreate his success with Sky.

Mr Murdoch’s 21st Century Fox sold its 39% stake in Sky to NBCUniversal’s owner Comcast in 2018 after losing a battle for control of the network.



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Biden knocks Supreme Court ruling on presidential immunity By Reuters

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By Andrea Shalal

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. President Joe Biden on Monday criticized the Supreme Court ruling on presidential immunity that was seen as a win for his rival, former President Donald Trump, in forceful remarks from the White House.

The U.S. Supreme Court found on Monday that Trump cannot be prosecuted for any actions that were within his constitutional powers as president, but can be for private acts, in a landmark ruling recognizing for the first time any form of presidential immunity from prosecution.

“This nation was founded on the principle that there are no kings in America,” Biden said, adding that no one is above the law. With the Supreme Court decision, he said, “That fundamentally changed.”

Biden is running for re-election against Trump and has been sharply critical of his rival’s actions related to the Jan. 6, 2021, raid on the U.S. Capitol by Trump’s supporters, who believed Trump’s false claims that he had won the 2020 election.

© Reuters. U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks during the Stonewall National Monument Visitor Center Grand Opening Ceremony at the Stonewall Inn to mark the 55th anniversary of the 1969 Stonewall riots in Greenwich Village, New York, U.S., June 28, 2024. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz

Biden, 81, was making his first set of remarks at the White House since his shaky debate against Trump last week led to calls for him to step aside as the Democratic Party’s standard-bearer for the election.

After he stumbled over his words on the Atlanta debate stage, his remarks and comportment will be scrutinized for signs that he is up to the job of running for re-election and of governing the country for four more years.





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