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Analysts explain how China EV sector can navigate protectionist backlash, subsidy rollback

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China’s world-dominating EV sector hit two major milestones last year. First, China overtook Japan as the world’s largest car exporter, thanks in part to affordable Chinese EVs. And second, EV giant BYD briefly overtook Tesla as the world’s largest seller of battery electric cars in the final quarter of 2023. (Tesla has since retaken first place.)

But the threat of a flood of cheap EVs is spooking foreign governments. The European Union launched an anti-subsidy probe against Chinese EV companies last year, which could result in higher tariffs for Chinese EVs. The U.S.—which deems Chinese cars a national security threat—is warning that “excess capacity” in China could overwhelm world markets.

But at the Fortune Innovation Forum in Hong Kong last week, Roger Atkins, founder of Electric Vehicles Outlook, an EV consultancy, noted that previous car exporters found a way to manage protectionist backlash.

“We’ve been here before,” Atkins said. “Japan had its export onslaught in the U.S. and Europe back in the 1970s and 1980s. The Europeans and Americans imposed tariffs, and then the way the Japanese got around that was to embed production plants in those locations.” 

Atkins then pointed to BYD’s new plant in Hungary as an example of how the Chinese carmaker is now expanding its global manufacturing footprint. (BYD is also building factories in Thailand and Brazil, and is considering new manufacturing facilities in Indonesia and Mexico.) 

Christopher Beddor, deputy China research director at Gavekal, saw parallels to earlier Beijing-led campaigns to encourage the solar and wind power industries. “China is essentially doubling down on industrial policy,” he said.

“The central leadership will say: We want to target a certain industry. Everyone focuses on that, it’s conducted in a campaign style,” he later explained.

Beijing is now starting to worry about overcapacity in the system, with one official in early January promising to take “forceful measures” to address new EV projects that weren’t supported by demand. 

This push-and-pull is part of China’s industrial playbook, Beddor said. “[Officials] go forward, [then] at some point, there’s a recognition [they’ve] gone too far. They pull it back,” he said.

Beijing started offering tax and infrastructure incentives in the early 2010s, helping to foster as many as 500 EV companies at one point. That number has since come down to about 100 companies.

China is now rolling back its support for the sector, which could lead to further consolidation in the sector as EV companies, many of which have yet to make a profit, exit the market.

Yet Paul Gong, executive director of autos research at UBS, said at the Forum last week that the “fierce competition” in the sector—between startups, legacy automakers, and even tech giants—has been good for the industry. 

Thanks to market competition, China’s “carmakers have really brought down the EV cost on par versus [internal combustion engines],” he said. “It is this market force that has brought the innovation [and] efficiency game.”

BYD and Tesla

Gong, at the Forum last week, also discussed the differences between BYD and Tesla, both battling for the position of the world’s top EV seller.

After a teardown of the Tesla Model 3 five years ago, Gong said the UBS team was “shocked how much Tesla was ahead in terms of technology leadership.” Yet a similar teardown of a BYD car, just a few years later, revealed the company’s level of technological sophistication was approaching Tesla’s.

“There is little gap [in] technology, but just different priorities,” he said. Tesla prioritized top speed and autonomous driving, while BYD focused on space and 5G connectivity, he continued. 

Yet Gong noted one critical difference: a BYD car, comparable to the Model 3, cost 15% less than production in Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory.

Unlike Tesla, BYD makes its own proprietary battery, the Blade Battery, and so does not have to rely on an external supplier like CATL or LG Energy Solutions. (The battery can make up as much as 40% of an EV’s cost.)

“We were shocked at how fast BYD has caught up,” Gong said. 



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Brazilians rally to protest supreme court judge’s decision to ban X

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Tens of thousands of Brazilians joined an independence day rally called by members of the rightwing opposition in protest against a supreme court judge who banned Elon Musk’s social media platform X in the country. 

Dressed in the national colours of yellow and green, attendees at Saturday’s demonstration in São Paulo held posters demanding the removal of justice Alexandre de Moraes, who has attracted controversy for a wide-ranging crackdown on digital disinformation. 

“I came here today in favour of freedom of expression. The constitution is being violated,” said 25 year-old radiologist Mayara Ribeira, wearing the shirt of the Brazilian football team. “The judge should be impeached”. 

X went offline in Latin America’s most populous nation just over a week ago after it ignored court orders to block certain accounts suspected of spreading falsehoods, many belonging to supporters of former hard-right president Jair Bolsonaro. 

It affected some 20mn users and marked an escalation of a months-long row over takedown decrees between Musk and Moraes, whom the tech entrepreneur has accused of censorship. 

“I don’t want anybody to be silenced, if they are leftwing or rightwing,” said retiree Elayne Nunes, 58, who travelled from the neighbouring state of Minas Gerais. “I’m happy that Elon Musk has brought to international attention what is happening in Brazil”.

The case has turned into a cause célèbre in the global debate about online free speech and energised Brazil’s populist conservative movement, which claims to be unfairly targeted by the judge. 

Allies of Moraes frame his actions as necessary to safeguard democracy against fake news, but opponents accuse him of eroding liberties. 

The blackout of X has divided opinion in Brazil. A survey by AtlasIntel found nearly 51 per cent of respondents disagreed with the ban, versus just over 48 per cent in favour.

Speakers at the event on Avenida Paulista urged senators to launch an impeachment of the judge, who has also become a target for wider criticisms that Brazil’s supreme court is overreaching its legal limits. 

They also appealed for an amnesty for people arrested in connection with the storming of government buildings in Brasília on January 8, 2023 by radical Bolsonaro supporters. 

Many of the rioters called for a military coup against leftwing president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who defeated Bolsonaro in the previous year’s election. 

“I hope that the federal senate puts a stop to this dictator Alexandre de Moraes, who does more harm to Brazil than Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva himself,” Bolsonaro said on stage. 

The ex-president faces a number of supreme court investigations from his time in office, including over an alleged coup plot — that was never implemented — to stay in power.

Researchers at the University of São Paulo estimated there were 45,400 people at Saturday’s event in Brazil’s largest city.

The trigger for X’s suspension was its failure to meet a deadline set by Moraes to appoint a new legal representative in the country, as required by domestic law. Musk had closed the company’s local office last month in protest at the judge’s orders. 

In his decision to block access to the platform, Moraes said X was seeking to create an environment of “total impunity” and a “lawless land” on Brazilian social media ahead of municipal elections next month.

Creomar de Souza at consultancy Dharma Political Risk said impeachment of the justice was unlikely for now: “It looks like we’re in for a long battle between Moraes and political forces in Brazil and abroad”.



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Russia economy: Relying more China’s yuan is backfiring

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After the U.S. and its allies sanctioned Russia in 2022 for its invasion of Ukraine, Moscow turned away from the dollar and euro in international transactions and relied more on China’s yuan.

That coincided with more trade between the two countries as Russia was largely shut out of Western markets as well as the global financial system.

By June, the yuan accounted for 99.6% of the Russian foreign exchange market, according to Bloomberg, which cited data from Russia’s central bank. And Russian commercial banks ramped up corporate loans denominated in yuan.

But this dependence on the yuan is now backfiring as top Russian banks are running out of the Chinese currency, Reuters reported on Thursday.

“We cannot lend in yuan because we have nothing to cover our foreign currency positions with,” German Gref, CEO of top Russian lender Sberbank, said at an economic forum.

That’s because the U.S. expanded its definition of Russia’s military industry earlier this year, thereby widening the potential scope of Chinese firms that could get hit with secondary sanctions for doing business with Moscow.

As a result, Chinese banks have been reluctant to transfer yuan to Russian counterparts while servicing foreign trade payments, leaving transactions in limbo for months. With yuan liquidity drying up from China, Russian companies have tapped the central bank for yuan via currency swaps.

At the start of this month, banks raised a record 35 billion yuan from Russian’s central bank through these swaps, according to Reuters. And banks were expecting more help.

“I think the central bank can do something,” Andrei Kostin, CEO of second-largest bank VTB, said Thursday. “They hopefully understand the need to increase the liquidity offer through swaps.”

But on Friday, Russia’s central bank dashed those hopes, calling on banks to curb corporate loans denominated in yuan.

The Bank of Russia also said in a report that swaps are only meant for short-term stabilization of the domestic currency market and are not a long-term source of funding, according to Bloomberg. But rather than simply filling the roles that dollars and euros did, yuan loans have expanded.

“The increase in yuan lending was partly caused by the replacement of loans in ‘toxic’ currencies, but 41% of the increase was down to new currency loans,” the bank said.

The central bank also released a survey that showed a quarter of Russian exporters had trouble with foreign counterparts, including blocked or returned payments even when dealing in supposedly friendly countries. And about half of exporters said the problems got worse in the second quarter from the prior quarter.

The overall Russian economy has been propped up by the government’s wartime spending as well as oil exports to China and India. But the combination of busy factories and labor shortages due to military mobilizations have stoked more inflation.

Researchers led by Yale’s Jeffrey Sonnenfeld warned the seemingly robust GDP data mask deeper problems in the economy.

“Simply put, Putin’s administration has prioritized military production over all else in the economy, at substantial cost,” they wrote. “While the defense industry expands, Russian consumers are increasingly burdened with debt, potentially setting the stage for a looming crisis. The excessive focus on military spending is crowding out productive investments in other sectors of the economy, stifling long-term growth prospects and innovation.”

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ETFs are set to hit record inflows, but this wild card could change it

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ETF Edge, September 4, 2024

Exchange-traded fund inflows have already topped monthly records in 2024, and managers think inflows could see an impact from the money market fund boom before year-end.

“With that $6 trillion plus parked in money market funds, I do think that is really the biggest wild card for the remainder of the year,” Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “Whether it be flows into REIT ETFs or just the broader ETF market, that’s going to be a real potential catalyst here to watch.”

Total assets in money market funds set a new high of $6.24 trillion this past week, according to the Investment Company Institute. Assets have hit peak levels this year as investors wait for a Federal Reserve rate cut.

“If that yield comes down, the return on money market funds should come down as well,” said State Street Global Advisors’ Matt Bartolini in the same interview. “So as rates fall, we should expect to see some of that capital that has been on the sidelines in cash when cash was sort of cool again, start to go back into the marketplace.”

Bartolini, the firm’s head of SPDR Americas Research, sees that money moving into stocks, other higher-yielding areas of the fixed income marketplace and parts of the ETF market.

“I think one of the areas that I think is probably going to pick up a little bit more is around gold ETFs,” Bartolini added. “They’ve had about 2.2 billion of inflows the last three months, really strong close last year. So I think the future is still bright for the overall industry.”

Meanwhile, Geraci expects large, megacap ETFs to benefit. He also thinks the transition could be promising for ETF inflow levels as they approach 2021 records of $909 billion.

“Assuming stocks don’t experience a massive pullback, I think investors will continue to allocate here, and ETF inflows can break that record,” he said.

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