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Ursula von der Leyen, Antonio Costa, Kaja Kallas

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European Commission President and EPP lead candidate standing for re-election, Ursula von der Leyen greets delegates before giving a speech at the congress of Germany’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party at the Estrel Berlin Hotel in Berlin, on May 8, 2024.

John Macdougall | Afp | Getty Images

The European Union’s three main political groups have come to an agreement on who will hold the bloc’s top jobs, three officials told CNBC, leading to disgruntled from some lawmakers in the continent.

The sources could only speak anonymously because of the sensitivity of discussions. The appointments have yet to be formally confirmed.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is set to remain in her post for a second five-year term under a deal struck Tuesday by EU leaders from the center-right European People’s Party (EPP), the Socialists and the Liberals, the sources told CNBC.

Under the same agreement, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas is slated to become the bloc’s chief diplomat, while former Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa will assume the presidency of the European Council, the institution that brings together the heads of state from across the EU.

The commission president is in charge of the EU executive arm and holds responsibility over regulating the world’s single market, proposing new legislation, and directing the bloc’s policy agenda over the next five years.

The council president, meanwhile, decides the EU’s overall direction and political priorities. The bloc’s chief diplomat deals with foreign policy and international relations.

“There’s an understanding between the three main parties,” one of the three EU officials told CNBC.

CFR's Richard Haass on EU election fallout: It's a really bad time to be an incumbent

The trio of von der Leyen, Kallas, and Costa was agreed by six EU leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, according to the sources. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Poland’s Donald Tusk agreed on behalf of the EPP, while Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez backed Scholz for the Socialists, and departing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte joined Macron on behalf of Renew.

The appointments meet EU requirements for geographical balance and are set to be formally approved by the bloc’s current heads of state during a meeting in Brussels on Thursday. They will then be voted on by the European Parliament at a later date.

Critics

Some leaders are expected to express their disapproval at the way in which the negotiations have been held.

“The deal that the EPP made with the leftists and the liberals runs against everything that the EU was based on,” Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said Tuesday in a post on social media platform X. His country is set to assume the rotating presidency of the European Council next month.

“Instead of inclusion, it sows the seeds of division. EU top officials should represent every member state, not just leftists and liberals!” he added.

Atlantic Council CEO Fred Kempe: Weakening Euro will be the most immediate impact of EU elections

Fellow right-winger Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has similarly decried her European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) party’s lack of involvement in the talks given their gains in this month’s European Parliament elections.

“I don’t think citizens’ votes in EU elections are currently being considered in negotiations for EU top jobs,” Meloni said Wednesday, according to Reuters.

While Von der Leyen’s EPP came out on top, winning 189 seats in the 720-strong assembly, her centrist allies lost traction amid record gains from the right, including Meloni’s ECR.

A separate EU official, who could also only speak anonymously because of the sensitivity of discussions, told CNBC last week that Meloni “seems to feel that as one of the election’s winners, she should be in the main mix and she isn’t.”

One of the three CNBC sources, who are aware of the negotiations, said Tuesday that the Italian prime minister “wants to be constructive,” in a suggestion that Meloni will also approve the three appointments.

Italy’s agreement could leave it in a better position to push for a strong portfolio at the European Commission. Von der Leyen will choose her new team in the weeks after her post is confirmed, and Meloni may be able to push for a role in, for instance, industrial strategy, economics or competition.

The new European commission is due to start in November, while the new European Council presidency is set to take office on Dec. 1.



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UK polls point to a big Labour win. The party fears voter complacency

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Labour leader Keir Starmer poses for photos as he visits the Vale Inn on June 27, 2024 in Macclesfield, United Kingdom. In the final week of campaigning, Labour outlined its plans to expand opportunities for young people. 

Cameron Smith | Getty Images News | Getty Images

LONDON — There’s been one main narrative since the U.K.’s Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called a general election back in May — that the opposing Labour Party would win the vote with a landslide.

While voter polls may have differed in scale and methodology, the results have pointed in one direction, showing that the center-left Labour Party has around a 20-point lead on the Conservatives. Labour is on track to win around 40% of the vote while roughly 20% of the support is projected to go to the Tories, according to a Sky News poll tracker.

Reform UK, led by arch-Brexiteer Nigel Farage, is seen with 16% of the vote, after eating away at Tory support, while the Liberal Democrats are seen gaining around 11% and the Greens with 6%. The Scottish National Party is predicted to win 2.9% of the vote.

Labour candidates and leader Keir Starmer have been keen to play down the level of support that the party enjoys, fearing voter complacency and the appearance of “having it in the bag” — a stance that could prompt voter apathy and a lower turnout of supporters at the polls, or a backlash from Conservative-inclined sections of the electorate.

“The Labour Party wants to be able to be convince voters that it’s absolutely central that they turn out and vote, because otherwise the Tories will win, and the Tories are desperate for people to think that they have still got a chance, and therefore it’s worth turning up,” Britain’s top polling expert John Curtice told CNBC.

Question marks have risen in the past over the accuracy of British voter polls, with previous projections over or underestimating support for various political parties. The errors have often come about because of inadequate sampling or of factors that are harder to control, such as voters being “shy” when polled on which party they intended to support.

Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer speaks ahead of the U.K.’s general election on July 4, 2024. 

Anthony Devlin | Getty Images News | Getty Images

This year, however, experts tend to agree that the polls show such a swing to Labour that, even if the scale of support were wrong, the overall result would be the same: a convincing win for the opposition party.

“My attitude is [that] a poll should be taken but not inhaled,” Curtice said wryly. “The point is, you shouldn’t be looking at them to provide you with pinpoint accuracy, they should give you a reasonable indication of the direction of travel.”

“It just so happens that because this is an election in which apparently one party is so far ahead, much as [it was] in 1997, the polls could be quite a bit out — but nobody will notice,” he noted, referencing the year when the Labour Party won a landslide against the Conservatives, ending the latter party’s then 18-year rule.

Labour ‘spin’?

The Labour Party itself is understandably keen to downplay the polls, with a spokesperson telling CNBC that the party doesn’t comment on projections, “as they vary and fluctuate.”

“Instead, we’re working hard to take our message of change to voters ahead of the only poll that matters, on 4 July,” the spokesperson stated.

On Monday, Keir Starmer said no vote should be taken for granted, asking his supporters to continue campaigning until polls closed on Thursday.

“The fight for change is for you, but change will only happen if you vote for it. That is the message we have to take to every doorstep these last few hours and days until 10 o’clock on Thursday night.”

“Nothing must be taken for granted, every vote has to be earned. The polls don’t predict the future, we have to get out there,” he told campaign supporters in Hitchin.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer during a visit to Hitchin, Hertfordshire, while on the General Election campaign trail. Picture date: Monday July 1, 2024. 

Stefan Rousseau – Pa Images | Pa Images | Getty Images

Labour’s former campaign and communications directors, Alastair Campbell, one of the chief strategists behind the rebranding of the party in the 1990s as ‘New Labour’ ahead of its monumental election win in 1997, told CNBC that he doubts current voter polls.

“I get really worried about about the way that these election debates are now unfolding, virtually everything in the debate at the moment is about these opinion polls,” he told CNBC two weeks ago.

“Apart from a few postal votes, nobody’s voted yet. And I just do not for one second believe that the Conservatives are going to get virtually wiped out, I just don’t believe it,” he said.

“I just think there’s something going very, very wrong with these polls, I could be completely wrong, and it’s true that Labour have been consistently ahead. But I just wish that, in our election periods, we would talk less about polls and more about what the parties are saying.”

'Something's going very wrong': Alastair Campbell casts doubt on UK opinion polls

Polling expert Matt Beech, director of the Centre for British Politics at the University of Hull, said Campbell’s position was designed to persuade Labour-inclined voters to cast their ballots.

“They want to make sure that they get as big a majority as possible. They’re all very much aware of [the lead-up to the election in] 1992 with the phenomenon of ‘shy Tories,’ when the polls said Labour would win and they didn’t …. [But] they’re not actually that genuinely worried about that. What they want to have a 1997-like landslide tsunami,” Beech told CNBC.

He added, “So if you keep banging on that drum [that the polls are not correct], you’re going to say to Labour-inclined voters, ‘please go out and vote.’ But it’s not that ‘we’re actually scared we’re not going to win, we are going to win comfortably. But we want a majority that enables us to push our agenda and we want this win to mean that we’re there for two terms.’



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Ad-supported Murdoch Netflix rival to launch in the UK

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Rupert Murdoch’s Fox Corporation is entering the UK’s highly competitive free, ad-supported video streaming market.

Tubi will compete with the likes of Netflix, Disney+, ITVX, Channel 4’s streaming platform as well as the BBC iPlayer.

The platform has been quickly gaining market share in the US where, according to Fox, it has almost 80 million monthly active users.

In the UK, Tubi says it will offer more than 20,000 films and TV series, including content from Disney, Lionsgate, NBCUniversal and Sony Pictures Entertainment.

The platform will also include a selection of British, Indian and Nigerian content.

UK viewers will be able to access content on the Tubi webpage and via a smartphone app.

Fox Corporation bought Tubi in 2020 for $440m (£348m) as the US media giant looked to attract younger audiences.

In recent years, streaming companies like Netflix, Amazon Prime Video and Disney+ have launched ad-supported services and raised subscription prices as they tried to boost revenues.

The moves came as they faced pressure to spend more money to grow their libraries of content as they try to attract more customers in an increasingly competitive market.

In March, Mr Murdoch’s TalkTV network announced that it would stop broadcasting as a terrestrial television channel and became a strictly online service.

The network launched in 2022 but struggled to attract viewers on its linear platform.

Mr Murdoch had hoped the network would shake up the broadcasting establishment by offering an opinion-led alternative to established outlets.

The media tycoon played a pivotal role in the development of the UK’s broadcasting industry by launching Sky in 1984.

Some commentators saw TalkTV as an attempt by Mr Murdoch to recreate his success with Sky.

Mr Murdoch’s 21st Century Fox sold its 39% stake in Sky to NBCUniversal’s owner Comcast in 2018 after losing a battle for control of the network.



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Biden knocks Supreme Court ruling on presidential immunity By Reuters

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By Andrea Shalal

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. President Joe Biden on Monday criticized the Supreme Court ruling on presidential immunity that was seen as a win for his rival, former President Donald Trump, in forceful remarks from the White House.

The U.S. Supreme Court found on Monday that Trump cannot be prosecuted for any actions that were within his constitutional powers as president, but can be for private acts, in a landmark ruling recognizing for the first time any form of presidential immunity from prosecution.

“This nation was founded on the principle that there are no kings in America,” Biden said, adding that no one is above the law. With the Supreme Court decision, he said, “That fundamentally changed.”

Biden is running for re-election against Trump and has been sharply critical of his rival’s actions related to the Jan. 6, 2021, raid on the U.S. Capitol by Trump’s supporters, who believed Trump’s false claims that he had won the 2020 election.

© Reuters. U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks during the Stonewall National Monument Visitor Center Grand Opening Ceremony at the Stonewall Inn to mark the 55th anniversary of the 1969 Stonewall riots in Greenwich Village, New York, U.S., June 28, 2024. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz

Biden, 81, was making his first set of remarks at the White House since his shaky debate against Trump last week led to calls for him to step aside as the Democratic Party’s standard-bearer for the election.

After he stumbled over his words on the Atlanta debate stage, his remarks and comportment will be scrutinized for signs that he is up to the job of running for re-election and of governing the country for four more years.





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