Is the UK winter going as forecast?

There has been much coverage of the weather in recent weeks with what has so far felt like an unusually stormy autumn and winter, followed by a spell of extremely cold weather with impacts from snow and ice for many, and then on Sunday (28/01/24) a new provisional maximum temperature record for the UK for January was recorded in northwest Scotland.   

To understand what has been happening over the last few months and what we might expect for the coming months, we need to look at the weather outside the UK. Global weather is interconnected and large-scale global weather and climate systems, known as climate drivers, can have major impacts on the UK at this time of year. So, what are these drivers and what are they doing at the moment? 

Climate Drivers 

El Niño, the naturally occurring warming of the Pacific Ocean, releases heat into the atmosphere, creating warmer and wetter air which can trigger extreme weather around the globe, resulting in impacts such as the ongoing drought in the Amazon.  

As we are all aware, so far this winter, the UK, has had a wet and stormy December followed by a colder spell in January. This type of weather is consistent with what we would expect during an El Niño winter. Although we are now in a milder interlude with westerly and southerly winds, the long-range outlook still contains a good chance of a return to colder conditions. 

Earlier this month the Met Office announced that globally, 2023 was the warmest year on record (data back to 1850), and it was the tenth successive year that has equalled or exceeded 1.0 °C above the pre-industrial period (1850-1900). Professor Adam Scaife, Principal Fellow and Head of Monthly to Decadal Prediction at the Met Office, said: “The above average temperatures have been driven largely by climate change but are topped up by El Niño. During an El Niño event, winds in the eastern Pacific weaken, keeping warm waters closer to the surface releasing more heat into the atmosphere and raising global temperature.  

“The ongoing Amazon drought and wet conditions in parts of Northern Europe in December are also consistent with El Niño.” 

Although El Niño has likely peaked in the tropics, its impacts are still being felt around the globe and Professor Adam Scaife, added: “The phenomenon could well lead to unprecedented global temperatures this year, with 2024 being the hottest year on record globally, potentially pushing the world temporarily past the key 1.5C warming milestone.” 

El Niño is not the only factor driving our weather patterns. Other drivers influencing the UK this winter include the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). This is a regular variation of the winds that blow high above the equator. The QBO is currently in an easterly phase, increasing the chance of cold northerly or easterly winds from the Arctic and continental Europe. The Stratospheric Polar Vortex, has tended to be weaker than normal so far this winter but its strength has now returned to around average, and its influence is likely to be limited in the immediate future. An active Madden-Julian Oscillation favours westerly winds over the UK during early February but then a reduction in westerly winds during mid and late February. 

All these effects are happening on a background of warming UK winters, consistent with wider global warming trends.  

Taking the ‘global drivers’ into consideration, our long-range forecast systems suggest February will start off mild, with the chance of cold weather increasing as we go through the month and into March. This means we could yet see some cold weather-related impacts such as snow and ice. This increased chance of cold does not exclude the possibility of milder conditions.  

Despite any speculation you may read elsewhere, the science simply does not allow for specific detail on the amount of rain or snow over the coming months or exactly when severe weather may occur. However, long-range forecasts can provide useful information on the likelihood of possible conditions averaged over the whole of the UK.  

The science of longer-range and seasonal outlooks is at the cutting edge of meteorology and the Met Office is one of the leaders in scientific research in the area. Even with ‘perfect’ prediction systems, the fundamentally chaotic nature of the atmosphere means these predictions will always be concerned with the likelihood of different kinds of possible weather conditions and the levels of risk of impacts they might bring.  Even with ‘perfect’ prediction systems, the fundamentally chaotic nature of the atmosphere means these predictions will always be concerned with the likelihood of different kinds of possible weather conditions and the levels of risk of impacts they might bring.   

You can check the long range forecast and daily weather forecast on our website. You can also follow us on Twitter and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store. Our three-month outlooks are updated each month. Keep track of current weather warnings on the weather warning page.