Business
Japan stocks rebound a day after major rout
Japanese shares rebounded on Tuesday after plunging on Monday and sending shockwaves through global financial markets.
The Nikkei 225 stock index jumped by 10.23%, or 3,217 points in its biggest one day gain in points, which almost reversed the previous day’s record drop.
In Europe, the FTSE 100 and stock markets in Paris and Frankfurt steadied.
The sharp fall in Tokyo followed the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates for just the second time in 17 years.
It sent the yen soaring against the dollar making Japanese stocks – and the country’s exports – more expensive for foreign investors and buyers.
The Nikkei’s 12% drop at the start of the week weighed on global stock markets. At the same time fears that the American economy is heading for a slowdown also hit shares in the UK, Europe and in the US.
On Tuesday, the FTSE 100 opened higher, albeit a modest 0.33% gain, before dropping.
Stock markets in France and Germany also edged ahead in early trading but later fell back.
Commenting on the outlook for Japan, Jesper Koll, executive director of Monex Group Japan, said he still had confidence in the country.
“Japan’s fundamentals are strong, recession risks are nil and corporate leaders are dead-set on raising capital returns,” he told the BBC.
Stocks markets in South Korea and Taiwan also regained ground, rising around 3.5%, after record falls.
The focus will now shift to the US where the technology-heavy Nasdaq index saw a further drop of 3.4% , although that was far below recent falls.
On Monday, the S&P 500 fell 3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended 2.6% down.
Investors have been spooked by weak employment data in the US, which showed that companies created fewer jobs than expected in July while the unemployment rate rose.
It has stoked speculation about when – and by how much – the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates.
Last week, it voted to hold interest rates while other central banks decided to cut them.
“The Federal Reserve missed an important opportunity to cut interest rates last week like the Bank of England did,” said economist Mohamed El-Erian, who is also president of Queens’ College, Cambridge.
The Fed had signalled that a rate cut in September was on the table. But Mr El-Erian told the BBC’s Today programme that by waiting “it risks tipping the economy further towards a higher probability of recession.”
A number of experts have cautioned that it is premature to suggest the world’s largest economy is heading for a downturn.
But if it does, it would have wider implications.
“What happens in the US economically and financially does not stay in the US,” said Mr El-Erian.
“The US has been the major driver of global economic growth, the US consumer is a very important engine of economic activity so the world as a whole would suffer if the US were to go into recession.”
The wait for the Fed’s next meeting will also likely mean stock markets remain unsettled.
“Markets are very volatile at the moment and will likely stay volatile until the Fed decision in September, so we wouldn’t rule out rapid swings in both directions,” said Stefan Angrick, a senior economist with Moody’s Analytics.
Business
All the market-moving Wall Street chatter from Monday
Business
Boeing staff get 25% pay hike in deal to avoid strike
Boeing is offering its staff a 25% pay bump over a four-year contract, in a bid to avoid a strike that could potentially shut down its assembly lines as early as Friday.
Union leaders representing more than 30,000 employees have urged the workers to support the proposal, describing it as the best contract they had ever negotiated.
If approved the agreement would be an important achievement for Boeing’s new chief executive, Kelly Ortberg, who faces pressure to fix the company’s quality and reputational issues.
Boeing workers in the Seattle and Portland region are set to vote on the deal on Thursday. A strike can still happen if two thirds of union members support it in a separate vote.
In a video message to Boeing workers, the aerospace giant’s chief operating officer, Stephanie Pope, described the proposal as a “historic offer”.
If ratified by union members, it would be the first full labour agreement between the firm and the unions in 16 years.
Although the tentative deal did not match the union’s initial target of a 40% pay rise, negotiators still praised it and advised members to accept it.
“We can honestly say that this proposal is the best contract we’ve negotiated in our history,” said a statement from the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM).
Aside from the pay bump, the deal offers workers improved healthcare and retirement benefits and a commitment by Boeing to build its next commercial airplane in the Seattle area.
It also gives the union members more say on safety and quality isues.
“Financially, the company finds itself in a tough position due to many self-inflicted missteps. It is IAM members who will bring this company back on track,” the negotiators said, referring to the crises faced by Boeing in recent years.
Mr Ortberg, an aerospace industry veteran and engineer, took over as Boeing’s new chief executive last month.
His appointment came as the firm reported deepening financial losses and continued to struggle to repair its reputation following recent in-flight incidents and two fatal accidents five years ago.
Business
Asia shares slip, China inflation surprisingly soft By Reuters
By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY (Reuters) – Asian share markets slid on Monday after worries about a possible U.S. economic downturn slugged Wall Street, while dragging bond yields and commodity prices lower as investors avoided risk assets for safer harbours.
bore the brunt of the early selling as a stronger yen pressured exporters, losing 2.4% on top of a near 6% slide last week.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.6%, after losing 2.25% last week.
and Nasdaq futures were both a fraction lower, after Friday’s slide.
Fed fund futures were little changed as investors wondered whether the mixed U.S. August payrolls report would be enough to tip the Federal Reserve into cutting rates by an outsized 50 basis points when it meets next week.
So far, markets imply only a 29% chance of a large cut, in part due to comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams on Friday, though Waller did leave open the option of aggressive easing.
“Our read of the data is that the labour market continues to cool, but we see no sign of the kind of rapid deterioration in conditions that would call for a 50bp rate cut,” Barclays economist Christian Keller said.
“Importantly, we also see no indication of any appetite for this in Fed communications,” he added. “We retain our call for the Fed to begin its cycle with a 25bp cut, followed by two more 25bp at the remaining two meetings this year, and a total of 75bp of cuts next year.”
Investors are considerably more dovish and have priced in 115 basis points of easing by Christmas and another 127 basis points for 2025.
Data on August U.S. consumer prices on Wednesday should underline the case for a cut, if not the size, with headline inflation seen slowing to 2.6% from 2.9%.
ECB TO EASE
Markets are also fully priced for a quarter-point cut from the European Central Bank on Thursday, but are less sure on whether it will ease in both October and December.
“What matters will be guidance beyond September, where there’s strong pressure on both sides,” analysts at TD Securities noted in a note.
“Wage growth and services inflation remain strong, emboldening the hawks, while growth indicators are flagging softer, emboldening the doves,” they added. “Quarterly cuts are likely more consistent with the new projections.”
The prospect of global policy easing boosted bonds, with 10-year Treasury yields hitting 15-month lows and two-year yields the lowest since March 2023.
The 10-year was last at 3.734% and the two at 3.661%, leaving the curve near its steepest since mid-2022.
The drop in yields encouraged a further unwinding of yen carry trades which saw the dollar sink as deep as 141.75 yen on Friday before steadying at 142.41 early on Monday.
The euro held at $1.1090, having briefly been as high as $1.1155 on Friday. [USD/]
Data on consumer prices (CPI) from China due later Monday are expected to show the Asian giant remains a force for disinflation, with producer prices seen falling an annual 1.4% in August.
The CPI is forecast to edge up to 0.7% for the year, from 0.5%, mainly due to rising food prices.
Figures on China’s trade account due Tuesday are expected to show a slowdown in both export and import growth.
Also on Tuesday, Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump debate for the first time ahead of the presidential election on Nov. 5.
In commodity markets, the slide in bond yields kept gold restrained at $2,496 an ounce and short of its recent all-time top of $2.531. [GOL/]
Oil prices found some support after suffering their biggest weekly fall in 11 months last week amid persistent concerns about global demand. [O/R]
added 57 cents to $71.63 a barrel, while firmed 60 cents to $68.27 per barrel.
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